Sunday, December 30, 2012

2013 Threat Matrix

The Council on Foreign Relations has published the Center for Preventive Action's Preventive Priorities Survey for 2013. It represents a survey of "experts in the field" and does a generally decent job. There are several omissions to which I call your attention.

First. China is cited  as being at risk for a Sino-Japanese conflict over the Senkaku Islands. You'll note that Japan is not similarly identified as "at risk." One side cannot be at risk without the other.

Second, Israel is not listed as "at risk" from Iran (or its proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah) whereas Iran is noted to be at risk from Israel. Again, no reciprocity. It is extremely unlikely that Israel would come under attack without the U.S. being involved in some way.

A third omission is the drug violence in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Drug violence in Mexico is listed, making the omission of the rest of Central America more obvious.

A fourth omission is the possibility of a flare-up of India's long-running Naxalite rebellion.