As years begin, there's a tendency among the pundit class to make predictions for the coming year. At COTTonLINE I consider myself a very minor pundit, but anyway here goes.
Things in the Middle East will get more nasty and brutish, particularly in Syria and Iraq, perhaps also Jordan. Lebanon can get sucked into the Syrian mess.
Egypt has to figure out whether it will follow ideology or pragmatism. Since pragmatism is logical and necessary for survival, expect Egypt to opt for ideology.
This could be the year of the attack on Iran by Israel, but we'd have said that last year, too, and been wrong. Obama might surprise everybody and have the U.S. participate actively.
Al Qaeda has a new base in northern Mali. At some point the U.S. will attack it, probably covertly. Drone attacks will continue, mostly without public awareness.
This could very well be the year two icons of the left in Latin America - Chavez and Castro - pass into history. The immediate impact in Venezuela will be larger than in Cuba.
Poor Argentina will continue to be a mess. Brazil works to get ready for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics, both held in their mid-winter, our mid-summer.
The drug cartel murder spree may calm down in Mexico as PRI reclaims the presidency. The PRI has a history of finding ways to coexist with rather than confront issues, perhaps including the cartels.
China may become less of an issue on our event horizon, unless their claims on islands in the East and South China Seas cause them to become belligerent with some combination of Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The first three of these five have the U.S. as a guarantor of their security. However, those three may discover that guarantee does not extend to uninhabited islands.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will continue to "enjoy" Congressional gridlock, a preferable alternative to unchecked progressivism. Modest moves toward gun control may happen, as well as a greater willingness to place the insane in protective custody. I expect the economy to improve ever so slowly, that is what the equity markets are predicting.
