Harry J. Enten writes politics and polling for The Guardian papers of the U.K. In this column he does his own analysis of why the GOP has a very good chance of retaking the U.S. Senate in 2014.
Enten emphasizes a different set of variables in his analysis, variables less susceptible to short-term fluctuation. In particular, that the Senate consists of two senators per state, regardless of population.
Conservative low population rural states have the same senate representation as liberal high population urban states. In Wyoming, we are particularly pleased with this arrangement.
Lots of analysts see 2014 as a good year for GOP Senate candidates, for the reasons identified here and others as well. All that remains is for the GOP to nominate candidates who can avoid saying stupid things.
