A Weak Solar Max

Which do you think has a greater impact on weather conditions on the surface of our planet: mankind or the sun? I choose the sun, which is variable in ways both predictable and otherwise.

Space.com carries a story by Mike Wall reporting from the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Wall cites Stanford University's Leif Svalgaard on the currrent solar state-of-play:

Our star is now at "solar maximum," the peak phase of its 11-year activity cycle. But this solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s.

The strength or weakness of a solar cycle appears to be driven by the intensity of the sun's polar magnetic field during the previous cycle.

The polar field was weak during Solar Cycle 23, so researchers suspected that Solar Cycle 24 would be underwhelming. Predictions about Solar Cycle 25 should start coming in two or three years, when the polar field reappears, Svalgaard said.

Wall has considerably more detail, adding up to factors which can have major impact on global weather conditions.

We could as easily be looking at another ice age as at global warming, who knows? Maybe all the greenhouse gases we're unquestionably putting into the skies are holding back ice.

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Speaking of frozen water, it snowed in both Jerusalem and Cairo yesterday. Time Magazine reports it has been at least 100 years since snow was last seen in Cairo. According to The Washington Post, Jerusalem has the most December snow it has seen in 50 years. Global cooling, anyone?