Robert Kaplan of
Stratfor has a
column for
RealClearWorld on Chinese motivations vis-a-vis the troubles they have stirred up over the Spratley Is. and the Senkaku Is. in the South and East China Seas respectively. Kaplan believes China does this out of domestic weakness:
China's leaders evidently feel that they are under pressure at home. China's economic miracle is not what it was several years ago. Fundamental reform and rebalancing can no longer be avoided.
China's new president and party leader, Xi Jinping, needs levers he can pull to ease public pressure on his new leadership team. Nationalism can easily be dialed up in such a circumstance.
In sum, China, by provoking crisis after crisis in the East and South China seas, is apparently acting against its middle-term strategic interests abroad in exchange for short-term benefits at home.
That being the case, Kaplan concludes the following:
For decades Americans have believed that Chinese power would be more benign if only China liberalized, with public opinion playing a larger role in shaping policy. But the opposite appears to be true. The more Chinese leadership feels it has to listen to public opinion, the more truculent and nationalistic the regime's behavior is likely to become.
It would serve China's international interests not to belligerently foment remilitarization in Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Assuming the leadership of China is rational, Kaplan believes their behavior must therefore serve domestic interests. I wish I was as sure as Kaplan that China's leaders are acting rationally.
