So ... how does the war in Ukraine end? Foreign policy analyst George Friedman wraps up an overview of where negotiations started, how little they've accomplished, why, and what they must accomplish to succeed.
The phase of the peace process we are in, such as it is, is what I call engineering. It is the process by which leaders of countries try to construct an edifice that is necessarily based in reality but is compatible with each side’s political needs – in terms of international relations and internal politics alike. The process of engineering is essential and extraordinarily difficult. The most difficult parts of this particular feat of engineering are Putin’s political needs.Is there an outcome, short of winning, in which Putin continues as leader of Russia? He is 'riding a tiger' from which there may be no survivable dismount except as victor. Autocrats suffer this problem.
In my mind – and this is not a prediction because engineering is not predictable – this ends when Trump makes a credible threat to intervene militarily in some massive way, perhaps with troops, if Putin continues his aggressive stance. European military intervention is not only unlikely but also not politically and militarily possible. Therefore, the question is when will Trump make a threat of massive intervention so credible that Putin would have to accept failure.
Trump may not be willing to make such a massive, credible threat. A substantial bloc of Trump's supporters are totally opposed to further involvement in this situation which poses no immediate threat to the homeland.
In which case, does the war drag on until Ukraine is exhausted and Russia wins? Then what, Holodomar 2.0 to drive the remnant population westward as refugees?
