Taking a fine-grained look at the polling data, Joel Kotkin notes political divisions among both oligarchs and blue collar workers that cross social class lines. There are now oligarchs who support both parties, with the type of business they run determining political orientation. There are similar splits among blue collar workers.
He also takes note of the over-production of college graduates who have both inflated expectations and deflated opportunities, the latter especially threatened by AI. It is a new political landscape, one having been influenced by changes in the economic landscape.
If I have a criticism of Kotkin’s analysis it is that it is backward looking. He seems not to take into account the changes Trump 2.0 is driving in the economic system and those would appear to eventually be massive. Some of this negativity is driven by Kotkin’s lack of MAGA enthusiasm.
I’d argue the solutions to the problems Kotkin observes with some dismay are already within view, if not yet much beyond the talking stage. If Trump can kick-start a reindustrialization of the US economy, expect the prospects going forward to more closely resemble sunlit fields than Kotkin’s dismal swamps.
