COTTonLINE's favorite foreign policy analyst - George Friedman - writes today about Putin's Dilemma in Ukraine. After some good analysis, he concludes:
If it turns out Trump isn’t kidding this time about massive economic actions, Putin will be in a much worse position. At this point, I don’t believe Trump can afford to renege.Putin gambled on the chance he could break Ukraine in one last, ruthless effort. Instead, the U.S. has pulled close to NATO and is sending weapons to Ukraine in concert with Germany, which has also deployed tanks closer to Russia’s border. The mystery is whether Putin can politically survive his ongoing miscalculations.
Something to remember, the draconian economic sanctions Trump has threatened have a historical parallel in those FDR imposed on Japan in response to Japan's depredations in China. Feeling itself in an untenable position, Japan responded with Pearl Harbor, and paid dearly.
What we don't know is if Putin's Russia would similarly decide to "go with the nukes" in a desperate attempt to salvage an untenable situation? If at least some of their missiles got through, we could lose millions dead while obliterating Russia. I can imagine Putin thinking "I personally have nothing to lose in attacking the US. as I'm unlikely to survive a coup against me." Like other notables of recent memory, he too might be reported to have 'jumped or fallen' out a window.
