Thursday, September 25, 2025

Is Trump Bluffing?

In the current game of "showdown" over funding the government after current appropriations run out, President Trump cancelled a meeting with Democrats Schumer and Jeffries. To continue the poker metaphor, instead of calling, Trump raised.

Politico has the story, not behind their paywall.

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue.

The Office of Management and Budget move to permanently reduce the government workforce if there is a shutdown, outlined in a memo shared with POLITICO ahead of release to agencies tonight, escalates the stakes of a potential shutdown next week.

Given that most federal employees are Democrats, potentially tens of thousands of Ds could find themselves suddenly unemployed. Lawsuits would ensue, but presume for a moment most would lose. Is this something Schumer and Jeffries want to risk, wholesale punishment of a key constituency? 

Calling Trump's bluff could be very costly. Failing to do so could be nearly as bad politically. A nice dilemma to put Congressional Democrats in, I believe.