Trump’s new National Security Strategy document gives us insight into why he may be willing to pressure Ukraine to accede to Russian demands as the price for peace. Of particular note is its greatly increased emphasis on the Western hemisphere, meaning a reduced emphasis on Europe.
North, Central and South America is our “neighborhood,” where we intend to be the hegemon. In that same sense, Ukraine is very much Russia’s “neighbor,” the two nations share a long border.
Lord Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO, said it exists to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” NATO began as an anti-Russian alliance. Putin has been clear he viewed talk of Ukraine joining NATO as a casus belli, reason enough to go to war.
To understand Putin’s thinking, imagine if Mexico talked of joining a Chinese-led military alliance having an overt anti-US mission. I think it likely a US president might invade Mexico under those circumstances, don’t you?
Putin’s action becomes at least understandable if not excusable, from the perspective of the leader of a nation invaded by both Napoleon and Hitler. You and I know there is zero chance of NATO invading Russia. That isn’t so easy to believe sitting in Moscow, remembering the rumble of German guns within earshot.
Paradoxically, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has stimulated two former neutrals (Sweden, Finland) to belatedly join NATO as well as the rearmament of key NATO nations, notably Germany and Poland. This makes them even more fearsome in Putin's eyes. I don't think Putin has gained much peace of mind.
