Economist Noah Smith writes a Substack entitled Noahpinion. Today his topic is the human fertility decline, which he observes is world-wide.
If it cannot be reversed, it will cause civilization to collapse over the next century or two. He begins with six commonly expressed coping reactions to the problem, and debunks each in turn.
1. “The only thing that matters is per capita living standards, so a shrinking population is fine”
2. “Productivity improvements will compensate for shrinking populations”
3. “Robots will make human workers unnecessary anyway"
4. “Concerns about low fertility are racist and sexist”
5. “We can just pay people to have more kids”
6. “Immigration will solve the population problem”
Smith suggests research aimed at solving the problem, which is logical, except maybe fertility isn’t the problem. I particularly liked this comment to his column, written by Professor Hollis Robbins (U. of Utah).
Call it "child rearing policy," not "fertility policy," because the real problem is the daunting task of child rearing. "Fertility" doesn't get at the actual labor. Ask any grandparent who is doing substantial child-rearing work. (My hand is raised.) Everyone I know who is not having kids will tell you: parents fear the grueling, 18+year long task of doing a good job, when the world is watching, when once you're in you can't back out.
For those of us lucky and talented enough to be successful adults, there is a substantial risk of raising children whose lives will badly disappoint us. I’d estimate half of our friends’ children have fallen far short of their parents’ accomplishments or expectations.
Lake Wobegon is a myth, half of all children are in fact below average. After doing all the work Robbins correctly describes, being disappointed with the results is not a encouraging prospect.
----------
Plot of a science fiction short story explaining the lack of ET contact. Intelligent species tend to discover how to make reproduction elective long before they discover practical interstellar travel. As a consequence they dwindle to small, planet-bound colonies.
Will humans be an exception? Unlikely, although Elon Musk is doing his well-financed best to evade the first and accomplish the second.
