An Indonesian author, writing in the Hong Kong based Asia Times, does a substantial overview of the impacts, both present and future, of China’s extremely low birth rate. A key observation: government efforts to stimulate births where tried have been shown to have quite limited impact. The conclusion:
Demography does not determine destiny, but it sets powerful constraints on what is possible. China remains a formidable state with vast resources and institutional capacity. But it is now a superpower entering old age, confronting demographic limits that policy alone cannot reverse.
COTTonLINE wonders: An autocratic state theoretically could constrain the availability of birth control drugs and devices. Would China’s citizenry rebel, or respond by further cuts in births?
I’m guessing policy wonks in Beijing are also wondering about that precise question. Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.
