Vice President J.D. Vance took the lead in negotiating with Iran as the fighting quieted down, but never ended. He was central in arriving at the Memorandum of Understanding, which failed almost before the signatory ink was dry.
Then immediately after the election Vance issued an X blaming GOP losses on the war. Finally, he apparently was asking Iran to return to negotiations within the past week.
It is widely believed that President Trump isn't pleased with Vance's activities and public statements, although he hasn't much gone public about it. We've all been waiting for the proverbial "other shoe" to drop, and now it has.
Today it was announced that President Trump has ordered Vance to "stand down" vis-a-vis Iran and focus 100% of his time and energies on fighting corruption and fraud in blue cities. Trump added we don't need a treaty or equivalent with Iran, and I halfway agree.
If Vance obeys Trump, his odds of improving his presidential chances in 2028 will suffer. If Vance goes rogue and does other things, he likewise hammers his presidential ambitions and increases the odds Trump will endorse one of his competitors.
His third option is doing nothing much, like Harris did when Biden made her "border tzar." Fourth he could resign and let Trump appoint a replacement. Actually that fourth option might be his best as he could then campaign more or less nonstop for two years.
I look forward to seeing how the betting markets' odds of a Vance presidency fluctuate in the next couple of weeks. If I were a bettor, I'd short Vance as I expect his chances to decline.
