Irony Alert

Yahoo News reports the following, with numbers drawn from a Labor Department report:

If the election of America's first African-American president was expected to give blacks an economic boost, it hasn't emerged yet. Indeed, the percentage of African-American men with a job has dropped to its lowest level since records began in 1972.

New Poll Numbers

Political poll enthusiasts, I've got a fine new poll for you. See this article from Investors Business Daily about their IBD/TIPP poll findings. More later on the specific content.

Later. The so-called "gender gap" in the political attitudes of men and women has reappeared. The article cited above contains a very strange line, here it is:

Men are one of the few demographic groups whose opinion of President Obama is lower today than a month ago, before the Navy SEALs' successful raid on Osama bin Laden's Pakistan compound May 2.

Technically, the line is correct inasmuch as they sliced the data several ways and found most of their slices were either more positive or neutral. What makes the line feel odd is that men are essentially half of the population.

If you read the article carefully, what you discover is that the President's numbers among men dropped less than they went up among women, which nets out as a modest plus. Another interesting factoid: his numbers among independents dropped slightly, regardless of gender.

The article speculates about the gender differences in political attitudes; one explanation they don't offer is that more women than men find the President attractive.

More on the Apocalypse

Claims the world is going to end are easy to mock as there have been so many of them, all wrong so far. We noted the May 21, 2011 Rapture Date billboards in a blog post last Friday, May 6.

Now here is a Yahoo News article about the phenomenon, with some history of prior claims thrown in for good measure. It doesn't take such claims seriously either. Of course, all end-of-world claims will be wrong except the final claim.

Nobody predicts what actually might happen: the end of human existence. Gaia is likely to continue, but might resemble Mars - as far as we know uninhabitable.

Maybe this is what the warmers claim will happen. I think they're wrong, too.

Ties to Terrorists

The Associated Press reports a disquieting connection between Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and the FARC or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a terrorist organization with ties to drug cartels. Here is the AP lede:

Campaign officials for Ecuador's then-presidential candidate Rafael Correa sought financial backing from Latin America's last remaining leftist rebel army in 2006, and there is evidence Correa was aware of such solicitations.

The report upon which these allegations are based comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London, and is based on documents and interviews with former FARC members. No surprise, Correa denies any connection with FARC.

Greece in Peril

Things are not good in Greece. For a decade or more, people in a basically poor country got used to living like other Europeans, living a middle class lifestyle. How could they do this? On credit, of course. Their government borrowed money.

Now the credit is cut off, and Greek people are asking "What happened?" See this article by Hara Kouki in The Guardian (U.K.) for a sense of their helplessness and frustration.

Greeks are told it is their fault, which is more-or-less true, and they refuse to believe it. All they did was live like the Germans or French live, in a country which is more corrupt and generates substantially less wealth than do Germany or France.

I wonder if we are headed for a similar experience in the U.S.? Our country generates a lot of wealth, and we are not vastly corrupt. On the other hand, we've wanted substantially more government services than we are willing to pay for with our taxes. Like Greece, we've lived on credit, aka the deficit.

Tour of the Horizon

When diplomats do a overview of what is happening in the world, they call it a "tour d'horizon" which is French for general survey or, more literally, a tour of the horizon. Victor Davis Hanson, the sage of Fresno, has done one such for the National Review Online, wrapped around the title "The World Turned Upside Down - Again."

Hanson sees the possibility that the Greek financial meltdown will cause a resurgence of German nationalism; which he argues the EU was established to forestall. He compares today's China to the Japanese Empire of the 1920s, with the chance that it too will begin to expand into adjacent territories.

Hanson fears that the Arab Spring will not lead to an understanding that the region's wretchedness is caused by its own cultural shortcomings. He finishes his "tour" with what is happening here at home, concerned that our government totally misreads our situation and place in the world.

I've merely outlined his discussion, very briefly; I recommend the article to you in its entirety.

Balz on Gingrich

Everybody has a view of Newt Gingrich, perhaps even multiple views. The Washington Post's Dan Balz, a potential successor to the late David Broder as dean of our political reporters, here writes about Newt Gingrich - his strengths and weaknesses as a presidential candidate.

Balz has the same doubts about Newt everyone else has, and recognizes the same undeniable set of strengths. For a decent, relatively balanced assessment of Newt's possibilities in the presidential sweepstakes, you could do much worse than reading Balz's analysis.

Two Bad Bargains

The New York Times' foreign affairs columnist Tom Friedman weighs in with a look at the bad bargain in Saudi Arabia and another in Pakistan. He is stretching a little to call what happens in Pakistan a bargain.

The Pakistanis worry about defending against India, which has zero interest in invading Pakistan. Pakistan, on the other hand, would seriously love to invade and liberate Kashmir, currently part of India.

Inasmuch as India has nearly six times Pakistan's population and much more and richer land, Pakistan's wish to defeat India in battle is no more than a dream. Chasing that dream, the Pakistani army makes common cause with violent radical groups in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

The "bargain" he describes in Saudi Arabia between the al Saud tribe and the Wahhabi ultra-jihadist branch of Sunni Islam seems to more accurately fit that description. Each enables the other, oil money supports both of them, and together they are a problem for the West.

Geyer on Dealing with Problem People

Georgie Anne Geyer has been traveling the world and writing about it for as long as I have been paying attention, which is longer than either of us would like to admit. Sometimes I agree with her, sometimes I don't - the latter usually about domestic politics where she leans left while I lean right.

Here she writes about international affairs and the wisdom of targeted attacks like the bin Laden killing versus wholesale invasions like Iraq or Afghanistan. She talks about Hasan Sabah, the originator of the assassins as an earlier troubled fanatic from the region, notes these men will continue to arise, and says we need good ways to deal with them. See her Uexpress article on Yahoo News.

I'm not sure Geyer realizes she is endorsing the Hasan Sabah approach to deal with problem individuals - send in the murder squad. Mossad has been doing this for 60+ years. In the past we have resisted this approach, even having presidential orders banning the targeting killings of problem individuals. The bin Laden hit suggests a change of policy.

Newt Is In

Newt Gingrich has announced he is running for the Republican nomination for president in 2012. Now the questions are, can he win the nomination, and should he win the nomination? Rephrased, that second question becomes: can he win the presidency, and if he wins, will he be a good president?

History professor Gingrich is probably the smartest person running for the 2012 Republican nomination, and undoubtedly the most fun to listen to. Unfortunately, law professor Barack Obama was the smartest person running for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and the most fun to listen to. He hasn't turned out so well as president.

Professor Woodrow Wilson also didn't turn out particularly well as president. People said Reagan wasn't really bright and he was a good president.

I spent my career being paid to be smart. It troubles me to say intellect may not be a major qualification for president.

I'm concluding Newt shouldn't get the nomination. I believe we need a successful governor as our president: Daniels, Pawlenty or Christie. On the other hand, if had to pick an after-dinner speaker I'd pick Newt, hands down.

Nontraditional Schools

Lucianne.com provides a link to an article in Stars and Stripes, the newspaper for people in the military. It concerns a government policy to mostly take into the military students who went to real bricks-and-mortar high schools, as opposed to those who got their diplomas online.

The military responds that it does so because graduates from regular high schools are more likely to stay for their entire three year enlistment. The article quotes a Pentagon spokeswoman as saying:

Data collected since 1988 shows only 28 percent of graduates with traditional diplomas leave military service before their first three years in uniform, while those with non-traditional backgrounds have a 39 percent attrition rate. (snip) It comes down to money because its costs $45,000 to replace someone who hasn't met their full term.

Clearly, some portion of kids who go to "alternative" high schools have difficulty "fitting in" to the regimentation of regular high schools. "Regiment" is the root word of "regimentation."

Having difficulty doing what you're told doesn't work in the service. Hence the 11 percent greater drop out rate for non-traditional high schoolers.

Moonbeam Revisited

In his eighth decade, California Governor Jerry Brown grapples with some of the most intractable budgetary problems extant in this Republic. Adam Nagourney of The New York Times writes a sympathetic, essentially positive portrait of the man who has been both California's youngest and oldest governor.

He is still the quirky, personally frugal man who years ago, in his first term in Sacramento, earned the moniker "Governor Moonbeam." He faces very difficult problems and I wish him well.

The long article concludes with a hint that Brown may end up coming forward with a true austerity budget. I'll make two suggestions for ways to cut state spending.

Release on parole all state prisoners with no history of conviction for violent crimes. As a result of the reduction in prisoners, close extra prisons and layoff unneeded guards.

Move all state employees who are less than 40 years old over to a defined contribution retirement plan. Most of that contribution should come from the employees.

Mothers' Day

Here at COTTonLINE we exponents of "the daddy party" nevertheless appreciate mothers. Please remember to think kind thoughts in the direction of mom today.

Tomorrow we will be back to bashing "the mommy party" again, while always careful to make clear the distinction between "the mommy party" and the dear lady herself.

Mothering should be left to mothers, not to governments.

Ecuador Votes

Reuters reports via Yahoo News that voters in Ecuador apparently have passed measures which would strengthen the hand of President Rafael Correa in dealing with the nation's judiciary. Early estimates suggest the measures passed with majorities in the 57-60% range, in other words, it wasn't close.

Correa is a populist and an ally of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Like Chavez he is anti-American. This anti-American stance is popular among Latinos who haven't the strength of character to admit their culture's sole responsibility for the poverty and corruption of the region.

Ecuador's press is under attack by Correa who wants to penalize the publication of views he feels misinform or lie. That sounds like the beginnings of censorship.

Lonely China

John Lee has written a very interesting analysis of China's self-perception, and sense of isolation in Asia and the world, for the journal Foreign Policy. Lee says China's major concern is that the United States, following the death of bin Laden, will pivot from a focus on terrorism to a focus on China as our primary adversary. It is a longish article, but a good one.

I'd guess Lee is correct in his analysis. If China has real concerns about the U.S. as an opponent, maybe they ought to send us fewer spies, be more subtle about their spying in the U.S., or both. See our post earlier today, entitled "China Spies on U.S." for details.

Empty Threat

His colleagues in al Qaeda have announced a threat to retaliate for the death of Osama bin Laden. I have to say I'm confused.

How does what they now threaten differ from what they already had planned for us? When a group has already announced they intend to bring about your death and dismemberment, what else can they threaten? Genocide? Hardly credible.

Quote of the Day

Columnist Mark Steyn, writing for the Orange County Register describing the White House release of information on the bin Laden slaying:

White House news management (is) so club-footed that one starts to wonder darkly whether its incompetence is somehow intentional.

I agree; it is hard to imagine ineptitude at this extreme level.

Woodward on the Raid

People will tell Watergate reporter Bob Woodward of The Washington Post, things they won't tell anybody else. He has written the best description yet of the step-by-step process of the Abbottabad raid on the bin Laden compound.

Do yourself a favor, read what he's written. My favorite quote from the article is this:

One senior official said the general philosophy of the SEALs is: “If you see it, shoot it. It is a house full of bad guys.”

China Spies on U.S.

Five different individuals were convicted of spying on the U.S. for China in an eleven day period earlier this year. Imagine how many more are out there who haven't been caught or are still under surveillance.

An Associated Press article on the Yahoo News website details a number of Chinese attempts to steal American defense secrets. Clearly, China has taken over from the former Soviet Union as the main instigator of espionage against the U.S.

Political Humor Alert

Go here to Jim Geraghty's National Review blog called The Campaign Spot, to see a poster of George W. Bush, looking particularly like the "Marlboro Man," with this tagline:

VINDICATION: When the Loudest Critic Of Your Policies Achieves His Greatest Success Because Of Them.