An Insight

Georgie Anne Geyer writes about foreign affairs for Yahoo News, here she has an insight about the Vietnam war that can be generalized to other wars of the same sort:

The Vietcong's intention was infinite -- our intention was finite. They would fight forever because it was their country and their children; we had to get home for Christmas. 

If we aren't willing to do what the Romans did - eradicate whole peoples who are inconvenient - and I believe we are not, then we shouldn't occupy their countries.

Decapitating an antagonistic leadership without occupation - essentially what the Mossad would do - is another matter.

Retroactivity?

I understand Colorado and Washington State have killed the laws against recreational marijuana. This raises an interesting question: will these two states release from jail the people who are there for using recreational weed?

How about expunging the records of those whose only crime was possession for use? The legal history of how we treated violators of prohibition when it was dropped might be a guide.

Releasing people from jail/prison could be a major cost savings for those two states, and an incentive for other states to follow suit.

Totten: Nationalism Still Powerful

Michael Totten writes about the tendency of educated Westerners to encounter educated members of other countries and make the mistake of thinking everybody in those countries holds beliefs like their own ... that would cause us to overlook the power of nationalism.

This mistake would be particularly dangerous in third world countries where the educated constitute what he calls a "bubble" or separate elite group, distinct from and quite unlike the bulk of the populace. Totten's World Affairs Journal article is worth your time.

Not All News Is Bad News

Paul Brandus, writing for The Week, finds five things to be happy about going forward. I think the five he's identified are real, important things to smile about. I won't try to summarize his reasoning, but here are the five:

We're winning the war on heart disease and cancer.
Energy independence is actually possible (for the U.S.).
We're enjoying a manufacturing renaissance.
We're safer (less violent crime).
We're climbing out of (household) debt.

These five could lead to a better life, at least until other things go wrong.

Mead: CA a Turquoise Economy

Walter Russell Mead, who writes the Via Meadia column for The American Interest, concludes the Golden State is combining the Blue of liberal politics with the Green of environmentalism to produce a "turquoise" way of governing. He writes:

Call it a turquoise governing philosophy: the mix of green and blue that wants to carry forward 20th century policies like a large civil service and a mass welfare state even as it manages the shift to a post-industrial, low carbon economy. 

To what combination of interest groups does Mead attribute this mixture of goals?

This strategic vision blends the priorities of three constituencies that are essential for the contemporary Democratic Party in California: rich greens (strong in Hollywood and Silicon Valley), public sector unions (vital statewide political organizations that Democratic candidates can’t win without), and low income Californians (a growing number) who depend on public services.

Mead buys into the notion that California is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. He concludes:

California is a few years ahead of America as a whole; those who think it is on the wrong road need to think very hard about what is happening and why, because unless something changes, this is where we could all be headed in the not so distant future.

Mead approves of being green, just not the way it's being done in California.

Politico Bios Kristol

Three plus decades ago, reading the columns of Irving Kristol in The Wall Street Journal was what convinced me that I was no longer a liberal. You see his son, Bill Kristol, on Fox News, and read Bill's stuff in The Weekly Standard.

Politico's Kenneth P. Vogel has done a professional biography of the adult Bill Kristol, what he's done, with whom he's worked, and who and what he's supported. It makes interesting reading, he's been involved with the entire conservative movement in recent years.

NYT: Social Security Predictions Off

There's good news and bad news, first the bad news. The New York Times has an article about the way Social Security calculates when it will run out of money - an ugly thing to contemplate.

The authors conclude the government's predictions are unduly optimistic. Funds run out sooner (bad news) because we are living longer (good news).

Why Keep Ag Subsidies?

Robert Samuelson, who writes political economics for the Washington Post, takes on the need to stop farm subsidies. His analysis is reasonable, and he's correct that meats, fruits and vegetables aren't subsidized. I remember growing up in an orange orchard and wondering why we didn't get federal aid, since grain producers did.

Samuelson chooses not to mention that many farm states have little population but two senators apiece, senators who are committed to keeping federal subsidy dollars coming their way. Grain-farming acreage is over-represented in the U.S. Senate, no doubt about it and no way to change it.

As many as 20-25% of senators come from major farm subsidy beneficiary states. They trade votes with senators from urbanized states who need HUD and other subsidies - I'll vote for your pork if you'll vote for mine. Don't hold your breath waiting for any of this pork to end.

Media Bias

Our press is willing to report bias in the press in countries like Venezuela, where the Chavez government largely monopolizes press coverage. There is little interest in reporting that the Democratic Party largely monopolizes press coverage in the U.S.

U.S. bias is no less real though not controlled by a government agency. Power Line's John Hinderaker has a good article demonstrating U.S. press bias.

Obama Once Understood Debt

Then-Senator Barack Hussein Obama, speaking on 16 March 2006 regarding the raising of the debt limit. What follows are the opening and closing paragraphs of his Senate floor speech:

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies.

Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, "the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.

Apparently, what is terrible if done by President Bush, becomes statesmanship when done by President Obama. He later recanted this position, explaining the world looks different from the Oval Office. The problem is that he was correct the first time. See Snopes for details including his entire Senate speech and his later recantation. Hat tip to friend Earl C. for the link.

Boom Years Ahead?

Then CIA deputy director Herbert Meyer predicted the end of the Cold War, in a well-known memo entitled "Why Is the World So Dangerous?" He's made another prediction that is out of the norm, entitled "The Next Big Thing from the Official Who Predicted Communism's Demise." See what he says:

The world is emerging from poverty fast. This is the biggest under-reported news story in the world. (snip) If we can continue this trend within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children’s lifetimes, the overwhelming majority of human beings will no longer be poor.  This is the biggest thing that’s happened in the entire world. (snip) Their demand for our goods and services will set off an economic boom.

My source for this quote is a Power Line article by Steven Hayward. The original source is an interview in Forbes. One reason poverty is declining is that population growth has leveled off in all developed countries, and some not-so-developed ones, too.

Not Guilty

A statistical study published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, authored by M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor, finds that humans are not responsible for global warming, if warming is in fact happening at all. They conclude:

We have shown that anthropogenic forcings do not polynomially cointegrate with global temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, data for 1880–2007 do not support the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming during this period.

My source for this quote is a Power Line article by John Hinderaker. Their statistics is out beyond what I studied as a doctoral student, but the journal is refereed so the stat is probably sound.

War With Iran Likely in 2013

An opinion writer for Reuters concludes war with Iran, involving the U.S. actively, is likely in 2013. See what he says:

The door is clearly open to the Iranians, if they want to come in from the cold of sanctions and isolation. If they fail to do so, and continue to buck the international community, war in 2013 is likely. Not because it is a good solution, but because President Obama might regard it as the only solution, albeit a temporary and highly uncertain one.

Do you have any doubt that the Iranians will "continue to buck the international community?" I don't. They believe God tells them to do so; God is hard to argue with.

Travel Blogging

Southern California:  Yesterday was the second day of our annual migration to the sun. Our part of northern CA has beautiful spring and fall, but gray, rainy, dreary winters so we migrate south.

Taking our RV to the sunshine, we yesterday drove down US 101 from Paso Robles to just north of Santa Barbara. At this time of year it is a beautiful drive, the rolling hillsides of the Coast Range are green and the cattle and sheep are busily grazing.

An easy drive, so I was musing about the central role this highway has had in my life. I was being carried back and forth on it in a laundry basket when I was tiny, grew up watching my dad drive a '41 Chevy, followed by a '50 Dodge on the stretches from Ventura north to Santa Barbara and south to LA.

This highway is older than our nation, and began with the name El Camino Real, the King's Highway when this land was owned by Spain. After Spain, it was part of Mexico, then briefly an autonomous California - the so-called Bear Flag Republic - and since 1848 part of the U.S.

The original 'highway' - a dirt track fit for pack trains and pedestrians - linked a string of missions established by Spanish friars to Christianize the Indians who lived here. The missions were a day's walk apart. Today it's four lane divided highway from north of SF to the Mexican border.

One of the fun facts about US 101 is that there are "mission bells" hung on poles along the roadside every few miles. Imagine a greenish pole with a top like a question mark (?) and a brownish bell hanging from the tip of the hook. A few have a sign below the bell saying:

Historic

El Camino Real

People steal the bells but somehow they get replaced, probably by the Auto Club. I remember my parents pointing them out to me when I was small, longer ago than I like to admit. I'm happy to report they are still there as of yesterday, at least on the stretch we drove.

The stretch of 101 from Gaviota (seagull) Pass to Ventura is legendary among surfers, Their cars are often parked along the edges. My memory says 101 is mentioned in Beach Boys lyrics somewhere, but I'm too lazy to go looking for the citation.

House Passes Senate Bill

The House of Representatives last night passed the Senate bill aimed as forestalling the fiscal cliff. The bill makes 'permanent' the Bush era tax cuts for households making less than $450k.

The Senate bill also forestalls sequestration - dramatic cuts in Federal spending - for two months. This gives the new Congress a chance to find less painful ways to cut government spending.

The bill also contains additional features important to various subgroups like physicians and the unemployed. See The Ticket article on Yahoo News for details.

The jury is still out on whether Congress will be able to agree upon ways to cut government spending, particularly the spending on entitlements. A betting person would bet against it.

Brooks: We're to Blame

David Brooks, who writes semi-conservative columns for The New York Times, has a different take on the current fiscal crisis. Unlike the editorial board of WaPo (see below), he says the Prez and Speaker Boehner know what should be done and would like to do it, but we won't let them.

Maybe he's right. It fits in with my notion that the American people want substantially more government than they are willing to pay taxes for.

WaPo Scores

COTTonLINE doesn't often find itself agreeing with the editorial position of The Washington Post. That said, on the first day of 2013 we are in agreement. See the first line of their editorial:

HAVE THE NATION’S LEADERS ever seemed smaller? It’s hard to remember when.

AP: Senate Passes Fiscal Cliff Bill

The Associated Press reports the U.S. Senate has passed the tax portion of fixing the fiscal cliff problem by a vote of 89 to 8. Now it will go to the House where Speaker Boehner makes no a priori predictions about its future.

Sequestration has been given a two month reprieve so Congress can try to work out better ways to cut government spending, including entitlement costs. That will put it in the hands of the next Congress.

2013 Predictions

As years begin, there's a tendency among the pundit class to make predictions for the coming year. At COTTonLINE I consider myself a very minor pundit, but anyway here goes.

Things in the Middle East will get more nasty and brutish, particularly in Syria and Iraq, perhaps also Jordan. Lebanon can get sucked into the Syrian mess.

Egypt has to figure out whether it will follow ideology or pragmatism. Since pragmatism is logical and necessary for survival, expect Egypt to opt for ideology.

This could be the year of the attack on Iran by Israel, but we'd have said that last year, too, and been wrong. Obama might surprise everybody and have the U.S. participate actively.

Al Qaeda has a new base in northern Mali. At some point the U.S. will attack it, probably covertly. Drone attacks will continue, mostly without public awareness.

This could very well be the year two icons of the left in Latin America - Chavez and Castro - pass into history. The immediate impact in Venezuela will be larger than in Cuba.

Poor Argentina will continue to be a mess. Brazil works to get ready for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics, both held in their mid-winter, our mid-summer.

The drug cartel murder spree may calm down in Mexico as PRI reclaims the presidency. The PRI has a history of finding ways to coexist with rather than confront issues, perhaps including the cartels.

China may become less of an issue on our event horizon, unless their claims on islands in the East and South China Seas cause them to become belligerent with some combination of Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The first three of these five have the U.S. as a guarantor of their security. However, those three may discover that guarantee does not extend to uninhabited islands.

Meanwhile, the U.S. will continue to "enjoy" Congressional gridlock, a preferable alternative to unchecked progressivism. Modest moves toward gun control may happen, as well as a greater willingness to place the insane in protective custody. I expect the economy to improve ever so slowly, that is what the equity markets are predicting.

Greetings

Happy New Year to all COTTonLINE readers. Let's hope our sometimes beleaguered nation also has a happy one.