Sunday, January 2, 2011

Statistical Science Staggers

I just read a New Yorker article by Jonah Lehrer about the scientific method and problems that keep occurring with drugs, treatments, and social science findings, all such based on things happening at frequencies greater than what would be predicted by chance. To say that I'm gobsmacked is no exaggeration.

This article isn't about politics or foreign affairs or even about interesting and unusual scientific findings - the usual grist of this blog. As such it may not be of interest to most of our readers. I can only say it was of serious interest to me, dealing with questions of the relevance and trustworthiness of the very methodology upon which most of the social science I spent a career doing was based.

At the very least this article and the collection of findings it reflects suggest the need for systematic large-scale replications of all the important findings in pharma and social science. It also suggests the need for a willingness to seek, publish, and invite criticism of tests that find negative results.