Spengler: Tunisia as Leading Indicator

Daniel Goldman, who writes as Spengler for the Asia Times of Hong Kong, has an excellent column on what the government overthrow in Tunisia means. He cites statistics that I've not seen elsewhere concerning a precipitous drop in fertility that accompanies literacy and education of women in Muslim countries. Here is one of my favorite lines:

The one thing we may say with certainty about the Tunisians is that there won't be very many of them a generation or two from now. Tunisia's young population may fall by half.

He explains why:

The demographic profile of Tunisia - along with Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Iran and most Muslim countries - resembles a train wreck in slow motion. (snip) The average young Tunisian woman - like her Iranian or Turkish counterpart - grew up in a family of seven children, but will bear only one or two herself.

Spengler notes that, like Europe, these countries will end up trying to support many elderly and, unlike Europe, not be able to afford it. That is his train wreck: few employed young people trying to support many elderly and not succeeding. See his conclusion:

The numbers don't add up. There aren't any good choices in Tunisia, and that fact is of greater significance than the next round of political improvisation after the fall of the Ben Ali government.