For Politics Junkies Only

Much is made, here in COTTonLINE and elsewhere, of the current "horse race" polls - who is ahead, who is behind, and by how much. I just read a wonky article looking at the extent to which polls taken this far before the November elections predict the outcomes, find it here on The New York Times website.

Looking at data that goes back to 1972, the author concludes:

The leader in national polls at the end of April in the past two elections has gone on to win. Before 2004, however, the April leader lost the popular vote more often than not.

Over those ten elections, exactly half the time the April leader won and half the time he lost the popular vote.* That suggests April polls are worthless as predictors, which may be incorrect. In fact, they may be accurate reflections of where the race stands in April. If as Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said, "A week is a long time in politics," then twenty-seven weeks is a very long time indeed.

* In 2000 Albert Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the electoral college and thus the election.