2012 a Referendum on Obama

Team Obama has argued that the 2012 presidential election will be a choice between two candidates. Historically, this is not the case in incumbent reelection bids which tend to be referenda. See what Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics has to say on the matter:

Perhaps the undecided voters will ultimately break for Obama, and this will start to look more like a "choice" election. This seems unlikely, given that his job approval among undecided voters is around 20 percent, but it is possible. Regardless, incumbent elections have historically looked more like referenda than choices, and so far, this election is looking like one as well.