Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Pipes: Israel Can Raid Iran

A Hoover Institution foreign policy expert, Daniel Pipes, writing in National Review Online, looks at the likely Iranian response to an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites. Pipes concludes that an Iranian response would probably be manageable and of a non-apocolyptic nature.

Would there be deaths and unpleasantness? Yes. Would these be widespread and of large numbers? In Pipes' opinion, no. He particularly believes Iran would be careful not to drag other nations into the conflict.

Most interestingly, Pipes quotes with approval the words of Eisenstadt and Knights concerning the alternative to a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, namely:
Apocalyptic Islamists controlling nuclear weapons.
I wonder, do Iranian leaders believe the end-times rhetoric they spout, or is it just conventional wisdom they need to espouse as serious Shia? Are they willing to jump headlong into acts that will (or at least "can") result in the end of Iran and most of its people - regional nuclear war - because this final battle between good and evil is predicted in the Koran?

I certainly understand why Israeli leaders don't want to find out the hard way that these beliefs are sincere, that they mean what they say. On the other hand, Arabic is a language of hyperbole, of saying more than is meant. It may be that Farsi is the same.