Friday, August 28, 2015

A Path to Nomination

Donald Devine was a campaign strategist for Ronald Reagan. Writing in The American Conservative, he poses a scenario by which Donald Trump could win the GOP nomination. Let me share it with you:
If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it is difficult to see any opponent who could rally South Carolina two weeks later, or Nevada. Then on March 1 a half-dozen Southern states with many fatalists (remember Huey Long) will split the opponent’s ranks further. On March 15 Bush could be ousted by Marco Rubio in Florida, with John Kasich winning by a smaller than expected margin in Ohio. Trump could win by losing, saying they were only favorite sons. No one would be left anyway. If he wins either state, it is all over.
Okay, political mavens, what has Devine written with which you fundamentally disagree? If Trump wins the nomination, blame McConnell, Boehner and their allies in Congress.

Caveat: A lot can change, either way, between now and the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire vote. Guest posting at Instapundit, Mark Tapscott calls this article "absolutely essential reading." A hat tip to him for the link.