Middle East Update

The foreign policy analysts at Stratfor look carefully at the Middle East and make predictions for RealClearWorld about who will side with whom (and against whom) in the near future in this volatile region. The money quote:

Overall, the Iran nuclear deal then will not mean less violence or war; it will mean more. The uprisings in the Arab world in 2011 created power vacuums across the region; proxies supported by outside powers, as well as local militias and groups, found new space in which to operate. Conflict in the region will become increasingly about Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt using various groups to compete against one other, rather than groups taking advantage of failed states to carve out small fiefdoms of power and responsibility for themselves.

It appears Stratfor sees the Islamic State or caliphate as primarily a regional pawn rather than as a rising major player. COTTonLINE reserves judgment. ISIS has consistently exceeded everyone's expectations.