Monday, August 31, 2015

The Blue State Blues

The Sacramento Bee reports demographic data from the IRS on household moves. My state-of-origin, California, lost a net 1.1 million people over the last decade. Their top five destinations were (in order) Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.
An unprecedented number of Californians left for other states during the last decade, according to new tax return data from the Internal Revenue Service. About 5 million Californians left between 2004 and 2013. Roughly 3.9 million people came here from other states during that period, for a net population loss of more than 1 million people.

The trend resulted in a net loss of about $26 billion in annual income. About 600,000 California residents left for Texas, which drew more Californians than any other state. Roughly 350,000 people came from Texas to California.

The recession and housing bust, which hit California harder than most states, likely played a role in the trend. Conservative analyst and Hoover Institute Fellow Carson Bruno also blames the state's high cost of living and tax structure.

The latest, separate estimates from the state Department of Finance showed net domestic migration losses slowing, but not abating, in 2014.
COTTonLINE agrees with Bruno. California's tax-paying public is leaving while its "tax-eating" public grows as a result of poor immigrants from abroad.

It's not difficult to imagine a CA future in which its two main groups of employed middle class people will be government employees and health care professionals. Who will pay the taxes to cover their salaries - retirees? Won't the retired conclude both TX and FL are also pleasant, warm places to live with no state income tax?

When the retirees emigrate, who pays then? Movie moguls and tech nabobs? Wealthy as they are, I don't believe they can afford to run CA as a plantation economy with a few very wealthy people supporting a horde of poor service workers: gardeners, baristas, dog-walkers and pool boys. The Matt Damon film Elysium portrays a version of this future, brace yourself and take a look.