Friday, January 22, 2016

Bad Timing

Timing is everything. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal famously called Republicans "the stupid party" for our frequent foot-shooting episodes. Check out the most recent.

Within 24 hours the following two things have happened. First, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post declares Trump the clear leader for the GOP nomination, a view supported by the polls.
Trump has pulled back into a tie with Cruz in Iowa, has extended his lead over the rest of the field in New Hampshire and leads in virtually every state that follows those two. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, look out: He'll almost certainly be the Republican standard-bearer.
Second, 22 well-known conservative pundits and spokespersons have come together at National Review to publish a condemnation of the Trump candidacy. Talk about bad timing.

How stupid is it to wait until WaPo's top prognosticator Cillizza says Trump has a clear lead before trying to kill his candidacy? Answer: very stupid. The time to attempt this was six months ago, before (a) Trump had momentum, and (b) he became a more adept candidate (which he has done). At this point all they accomplish is to provide ammunition to those who would damage the party's front runner.

Do you believe the third or more of GOP voters who support Trump will joyously shift their support to whomever the party leaders allow to get the nomination? Some will, many others will stay home as they did with Romney in 2012.

Trump is a flawed messenger but his message is powerful: we need to win again, we're tired of losing. None of the other aspirants have clearly enunciated that nationalist message, or have projected a fierce determination to make it happen.