Brace Yourself

This article in The New York Times Business section indicates there is a very high probability that the U.S. economy is headed into a recession. Citing research from the Federal Reserve Bank, it concludes:

There have been six recessions since 1968, the year that the quarterly survey of economists began. At the start of each one, economists put the odds that the economy would shrink in the current quarter at 40 percent or more. In the latest survey, the forecasters also said there was a 43 percent chance that the economy would shrink in the second quarter of 2008. Every time that reading has risen above 40 percent, the economy has gone into recession.

Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.