All precincts have been heard from, and we know who won in raw vote terms. It will take longer to get an accurate reading on delegate counts. Every candidate ends up with at least some bragging rights. The punditocracy says the Dem race is too close to call, maybe they are even correct. That same illustrious group of poobahs says McCain now has to be viewed as the front runner. On the other hand, if either Romney or Huckabee drops out and his supporters go to the one remaining, McCain could have a problem.
Pretty clearly, Huckabee and Romney are splitting the "anybody but McCain" vote, a group getting loud support from radio mavens Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, among others. Thusly, McCain could end up winning the nomination without the whole-hearted support of even 1/2 of the GOP. I am reminded of the election in 1992 when Bill Clinton won the White House with less than 50% of the vote because third party candidate Ross Perot drained off some of the Bush I vote.
One factor that has attracted attention is that the total numbers of voters showing up to choose between the two Dems has been larger in all but two states than the number showing up to choose among the three (four if you count nuisance candidate Ron Paul) Republicans. The experts call this a measure of voter intensity, the degree to which voters are excited by their party's candidates. The difference in turnout is a bad omen for the outcome in November, if many normally Republican voters don't bother to vote at all. One suspects that many voters don't think the GOP has much of a chance and therefore find this year's primary process irrelevant.
Isn't politics fun? My GOP prediction: McCain gets the nomination and picks Huckabee as vice presidential nominee. I don't yet have a prediction for the Dems. BTW, Mark Steyn doesn't agree with my prediction, see his view here.
