Chang says that Japan will overtake China, regain its position as the world's second largest economy, and will do it in the next few years. I understand he feels China will stumble, but I think his view of Japan is too rosy.
He also expects China to experience a series of large scale environmental disasters - floods, droughts, earthquakes - causing mass internal population movements. Finally, he expects the results of the one child policy to catch up with China at the same time that urban Chinese women have many fewer children.
Chang expects to see all of this within the next ten years. We won't have to wait long to learn if he's correct. I think one of the most interesting bits of news out of China recently has been outbreaks of labor trouble at manufacturing facilities, an issue he doesn't even mention.
