Whether TPaw is the first to drop out depends on whether you believe Donald Trump and Mitch Daniels were ever in the race. I tend to think not.
Pawlenty was a successful governor and is, on paper, a viable candidate. What he lacks is charisma, that larger-than-life quality that we seek in our presidential candidates.
So, the GOP field is smaller by one, Pawlenty, and larger by one, Rick Perry. Bachmann is encouraged by her straw poll win in Iowa and will soldier on, as will Paul because he truly represents about 5% of the electorate.
Perry and Romney will tussle with Bachmann for the lead. If you believe Republicans will behave in their traditional fashion, they'll nominate Romney, the next in line.
Romney, at least, has the advantage of not seeming weird to independents. On the other hand, evangelicals can't stomach his Mormon faith.
Perry has ways to appeal to all branches of the party, including those who like a president with military (Air Force) experience. He has to overcome the "not another Texas governor" barrier erected by Bush. We'll discover how that turns out and try to get a sense of how independents will view him.
