Bill Schneider does some interesting political analysis for Reuters, based on what he calls "the 2-4-6 rule." His analysis is based on when people were last elected and which party was dominant that year.
In the case of the Senate, whatever party was dominant six years ago is the one with seats to lose this year. In the case of governors, the cycle is four years, and in the House two years. His conclusion, Senate Republicans will do well in 2014 while Senate Democrats will do well in 2016.
Most House seats are safe for one party or the other by design. Schneider finds only 10% of house seats are competitive in 2014.
His is an intriguing model, worth considering. Winning a competitive seat as part of a "wave" election won by your party puts you at extra risk come reelection time. Check it out.
