Predicting November Voter Turnout

Pollster John M. Couvillon has interesting political analysis on his JMC Analytics website. Comparing the 2014 midterm election with the previous one in 2010, he uses primary voting as an predictor of voter enthusiasm in November :

There are two conclusions which we can draw from the data: (1) Republican enthusiasm (percentage-wise) is stronger than it was in 2010, and (2) Overall turnout volume is lower than in 2010, although Democratic turnout volume has deceased far more than Republican turnout. More specifically, here are the details of what we have found:

2010 primary turnout: 10.6 million

2010 party composition of primary turnout: 55-45% Republican

2014 primary turnout: 9.0 million

2014 party composition of primary turnout: 63-37% Republican

Change in turnout: 15% decrease (29% for Democrats and 4% for Republicans)

States where Republican primary participation % increased: 13

States where Republican primary participation % was flat: 1 (Idaho)

States where Republican primary participation % decreased: 0

2012 Presidential preference: 53-45% Romney over Obama

Republicans appear to have the wind at their backs.