Steven P. Bucci is foreign policy director for The Heritage Foundation. He has penned for
RealClearDefense an
article about the dangers of a region-wide war in the Middle East, making an interesting analogy to an earlier conflict.
In June 1914, an assassin shot the heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the powder keg was lit. The results were disastrous.
The Middle East today looks frighteningly similar to the Europe of the early 20th Century.
Bucci believes what has changed is a reduced U.S. role in the region.
For decades, the U.S. served as security guarantor and diplomatic trouble-shooter for our friends in the region.(snip)The credible threat of American hard power was enough to keep our friends calm and our enemies quiet.
Our jittery friends in the Middle East now feel that they must counter—strongly and immediately—the local infections promoted and exploited by Iran. And they are sometimes doing so without consulting the U.S.
And he concludes:
The result is a Middle East more explosive and unpredictable than ever. The conditions are now ripe for a major Middle Eastern war—one that could spill across the globe, wherever Sunni and Shia Muslims interact. All that remains missing is a spark.
