Demographic Note

Number-cruncher Nate Silver writes at his FiveThirtyEight blog about the impact of racial demographics on politics.

Although it will be a couple of decades before the electorate as a whole is majority-minority, the Democratic vote is already getting there. In 2012, only 55 percent of President Obama’s voters were white, according to the national exit poll. Our demographic projections of this November’s electorate, which account for population growth since 2012, calculate that the white share of the Democratic vote will tick down another percentage point, to 54 percent. The rest of the Democratic vote will be black (24 percent), Hispanic (15 percent), or belong to Asian or other races (7 percent), according to our projections.

Paraphrasing children's TV show host Mr. Rogers, "Can you say 'tribal voting'?" Maybe the white vote for Democrats will "tick down" more than one percent - I predict it will.