Even though DACA is popular, Republicans would be unlikely to face a backlash among their voters — even their more centrist ones — should they refuse to pass a replacement.Inasmuch as winning reelection is the prime directive of politics, a hardline stance on immigration is the obvious choice.
Indeed, Republican members of Congress could face a backlash if they pass one — in the form of primary challenges.
In recent elections, a hardline stance on immigration has proved to be a winner in Republican primaries. It has been highly correlated with how well GOP senators have done against primary challenges — senators with more hardline positions have done better against primary challengers; those with more moderate views have done worse.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Hardline Is Winner
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight site writes that attitudes toward illegal immigration are complicated. However, they make one very clear statement: