Florida Dem Dreams Premature

Nate Cohn crunches numbers for The New York Times. Today he talks about the impact on Florida voting of (a) Puerto Ricans moving to the state from the island were they had no vote on national offices and (b) a law returning the vote to convicted felons who’ve finished their sentences.

Both groups are expected to vote Democratic. Cohn writes:

But the reality for Democrats is that neither development is likely to fundamentally alter Florida’s political character heading into the 2020 election.

The main reason? The electoral effect dwindles after accounting for the relatively low turnout rates among these groups.

On the other hand, there are the largely white retirees who, having nothing better to do, vote in great numbers:

The Villages, Fla., was the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the United States in 2016; it voted for Mr. Trump by 39 points. Over all, 10 of the 25 fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States were in Florida in 2016, and all except Orlando-Kissimmee — where there has been considerable Puerto Rican immigration — supported Mr. Trump in 2016.

An interesting side note about retirees moving to FL, the true poor can’t afford to relocate. Most who can, except from NYC and north NJ, are Trump voters. Don’t expect red FL to turn purple by 2020.