VDH: Thinking About Iran

Historian Victor Davis Hanson, writing at American Greatness, answers 10 questions about Iran following Saturday’s bombing of their nuclear sites. We have often cited his work in the past. I found his answers reassuring, perhaps you will as well. Here are the questions.

1. What are we to make of Saturday night’s destruction of the three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan?
2. But what happens now? Won’t Iran release its terrorist cells in the U.S., or attack U.S. bases nearby with missiles and drones, or unleash missiles at the Gulf oil fields, or mine the Straits of Hormuz, or unleash a new unforeseen volley of missiles at Israel?
3. What will be the reaction of the Iranian street or the military?
4. What was Trump doing by announcing a 1-14 day window to decide the use of force?
5. What is the attitude of the Arab Islamic world—specifically the proximate Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan—to the American elimination of the Iranian nuclear program?
6. After the attack, will the MAGA base splinter Trump’s support and help weaken his agenda before the midterms?
7. Will Russia or China put pressure on the U.S. to restrain Israel, intervene, or cause havoc?
8. How will Trump fare in the war?
9. Will the image and profile of Israel in the Middle East change after the invasion war?

I believe you will find his answers to these questions useful. 

At War?

Roger Kimball, writing for American Greatness, considers Iran in its region, and gives several examples.

As we contemplate the future of Iran, I would suggest pondering the possibility that, even if “we are not at war with Islam,” Islam may well be at war with us.

It does feel that way sometimes, doesn't it? Some call it "the Long War," another name for the Global War on Terror. Not to be confused with the sci. fi. and gamer usages of the LW label, which search engines bring up first.

The Morning After ....

We've been wondering what action(s) Iran would take in retribution for our bombing their nuke sites all to blazes. So far today there are a couple of things to report.

The first is that they have taken preliminary steps to close the Straits of Hormuz as the New York Post reports.

Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world’s daily oil flows.

The move, which could block $1 billion in oil shipments per day, is likely to send oil prices soaring. It will come into effect pending a final decision by Iran’s Supreme Council. The Supreme Council’s decision must be made by tonight, according to Iran’s state-run Press TV.

The second was something reported by Zero Hedge.

Russia's former president and current deputy chairman of the country's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev [noted:] A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.

I believe the first is much more likely than the second. Loaned nukes would be a game-changer, and could start a nuclear war which almost nobody wants any part of.

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Nineteen years ago, Henry Kissinger wrote of Iran as follows.

A modern, strong, peaceful Iran could become a pillar of stability and progress in the region. This cannot happen unless Iran's leaders decide whether they are representing a cause or a nation — whether their basic motivation is crusading or international cooperation.

I believe we know what they decided, as this piece in The Atlantic points out about missile attacks on Israel:

The strikes had been carried out not by Iran’s military but by a militia, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization whose name doesn’t even include Iran: the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

This is not some bureaucratic “fun fact.” Rather, it illustrates a fundamental truth about Iran: the duality of its institutions, many of which are explicitly defined to be autonomous of both the nation and the state.

This duality is Iran's red clown nose, they leave it off and act as "the voice of Allah," then pop it on and pretend to be a normal country. Are we supposed to take them at their word both times? Balderdash and poppycock. They are a bloodthirsty religious movement, when it suits them wearing as camouflage the hide of the nation they killed when they deposed the Shah.

Update

Late last week the TV weather guessers were predicting a super hot weekend running into Monday with most of the nation sweltering. For all I know, maybe they were right.

About most of the country, that is. Here in the northern Rockies yesterday - Saturday - was actually too cool for a short sleeve shirt to be comfy. I don’t think we reached 70℉, we ate supper indoors instead of on the screened porch.

This morning is overcast, though what happens later is anybody’s guess. Our predicted high today is 55℉ and there is a freeze warning for tonight (29℉ predicted).

I believe I’ve mentioned we have a short growing season here. “Growing season” is the number of days between the last freezing night in Spring (quite possibly tonight) and the first freezing night of Autumn. Locals have tried to home garden tomatoes and corn, but most years those are forlorn hopes and few make a second attempt.

At this altitude we grow mostly irrigated fodder - hay and alfalfa. These are fed to cattle which are raised for meat, cow/calf operations predominate. 

Dairying once was common but the work is just too unrelenting. When we first arrived here 30 years ago there was a thriving cheese factory but it and the dairies that supported it are long gone.

The area is making a gradual transition from alpine agriculture to two-season tourist area like Vail or Sun Valley. There are lakes, ski resorts and National Parks within an hour’s drive, plus lots of hunting, fishing, snowmobiling and off-roading in the two local National Forests. Just this year a KOA joined several local RV parks already here.

Not Surprised

COTTonLINE gave you a heads up about a likely bombing attack on Iran almost a month ago. Here is some of what we posted on March 27.

US long-range bombing assets are massing at Diego Garcia. The means one of two things.

Either they are there to add weight to the pressure Trump will put on Iran to reach a no-nukes deal, or they are there to bring pressure and, if the diplomatic effort fails, bomb to destruction Iran's nuclear program using (non-nuclear) ground-penetrating high explosive bombs. Carrier based assets will aid in this latter effort.

Long range bombers delivered most of the attack on Iran, and according to Jennifer Griffin, Fox News' longtime Pentagon reporter, carrier based EA-18 electronic warfare planes supported the mission. There were also submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles fired at surface targets. One source even claims a B-52 dropped a bunker buster too.

This last point could turn out to be important, namely that B-52s can operate more-or-less safely over Iran. They are capable of carrying well over a hundred 500 lb. dumb bombs per mission, of the sort that can carpet bomb cities into rubble fields. Trump warned that Iran has "many targets left" and he is willing to destroy them too if surrender is not forthcoming.

I wonder when and how this ends?

He Decided, and the Bombs Dropped

Fox News and other sites are reporting that US B-2 heavy bombers have successfully bombed three sites in Iran: Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. President Trump announced on Truth Social that the aircraft are all safely out of Iran and, presumably by now, headed home. 

His earlier talk of deciding whether to bomb happening sometime in the next two weeks was obviously meant to keep both Iran and Congress off guard, thinking they had time. It turned out to be more like 2 days. 

It remains to be seen how the members of Congress who wanted Trump to run it by them first will react. Not happily, one supposes.

It has been announced Trump will be making an Oval Office announcement about the attack on TV tonight at 10 p.m. eastern time, which will be 8 p.m here in mountain time. I intend to watch that broadcast.

Things could get exciting in the next few days or weeks, or not. We'll have to see if Iran infiltrated sleeper squads through Biden's wide-open border during the last four years, and if they will choose to activate them.

Be on the watch for things that don't look quite right, don't look normal here at home, in the next few weeks. If you see something, say something.

Saturday Snark

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Friday Snark

Images courtesy of Politico's
The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Prey vs. Predator

 A Donald Trump quote gives insight into his frame of mind as both 45 and now as 47.

Asked by a reporter what gave him the idea for the giant flag, he replied: “I’ve had it for a long time. The first time I had it, you guys [the media] were after me and I said, ‘I had to focus.'”

“I was the hunted,” Trump said of his first term, “and now I’m the hunter. It’s a big difference.”

Hat tip to Power Line’s Scott Johnson for sharing the quote. I predict presidential historians will write of Trump that losing his first reelection bid paradoxically made his second term, when he won it, much more consequential.

Saluting the Solstice

Later today at 8:42 p.m. Mountain Time, the Summer Solstice will occur in the Northern Hemisphere. Today will be our longest day (and shortest night) of the year. 

Perhaps most important it will be the official first day of our Northern Hemisphere summer. We have yet to run our AC here in the mountains. 500+ miles south, and nearly a mile closer to sea level, our winter quarters have already had several days with highs over 100℉, today is predicted to reach 108℉.

One of my most memorable summer solstices happened sometime in the early 1980s. We did a late spring RV trip up the Alaskan Highway in our little motorhome and kept going north to Fairbanks, AK. On this date that year we were parked at a Fairbanks RV camp and at 1 a.m I went outside and there was enough natural light to read a newspaper. The mosquitoes were fierce so I didn’t tarry. That trip was some adventure.  

Conservatives Happier People

Data guy Nate Silver posts survey data on X which shows conservatives are just plain happier people than liberals. He writes:

Here's an attempt at a deeper dive at understanding why conservatives are so much happier than liberals. Mostly looking at how persistent the gap is in survey data rather than extrapolating too much.

After which he posts this table, but doesn't give its source which this site says is CES standing for Cooperative Election Survey.

If Silver doesn't want to give the most obvious answer, I will. Conservatives resist change because they feel no need, the world is treating them okay or better, and change could make it worse. Liberals seek change because in one way or several the world doesn't suit them as it now is, and they feel they've less to lose if change goes sour.

This leaves aside the whole "neurotics and normals can view the exact same objective set of circumstances and see quite different things" issue. Liberals are much more likely to self-report having been given a less-than-positive mental health diagnosis.

Regardless, for men and women of all races, all age groups, all education levels conservatives are happier than liberals. The differences are not trivial and this is not a new finding.

Full disclosure: I am a conservative white man from the Silent generation with a postgraduate degree. That's like drawing a straight flush. I should be (and mostly am) giddy with happiness when the vicissitudes of aging don't put a damper on my spirits.

How to Bust a Bunker

Several recent posts have discussed the possibility of US B-2 heavy bombers dropping massive "bunker buster" bombs on the underground Fordow nuclear site in Iran. 

If your interest extends to "how would those work," Fox News has an excellent column (with diagrams) describing the bombs' two step process and how it might be done. Enjoy.

DJT Hints at the Iran Endgame

Here in the Mountain time zone we get Bret Baier live at 4 p.m., which isn't a convenient time to watch so we record it and watch it in the local 6-7 p.m. window. That explains why I just saw President Trump say the following, which I roughly paraphrase.

For at least 15 years I have been saying Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. I don't want to go to war. If shutting down their weapon development can be accomplished peacefully, fine. If not, then it still must happen.

My reading of what he said is the following. Iran surrenders and allows outsiders to destroy their nuclear program or we bomb it into rubble. Asked about regime change, he didn't show much interest. Trump is a long-time critic of "nation building," at which the US is not succeeded in the last half century.

Meanwhile, Trump is in no hurry to act. The longer the mullahs hold out in Iran, the more the Israelis degrade Iran's infrastructure, economy, and leadership with air strikes and assassinations. Letting this process continue for 2-3 more weeks has certain advantages. 

What Divide?

Red State has the results of a poll which finds MAGA voters are not much divided on US support for Israel.

The poll, which was prepared by GrayHouse for the Senate Republican Committee, showed MAGA far from being fractured, with a staggering 80 percent of Trump voters voicing their support for the U.S. providing Israel with offensive weapons in its efforts to destroy Iran's military and nuclear capabilities.

That's not all. Poll results show that 83 percent of Trump voters support the strikes on Iran's nuclear program, with 72 percent supporting the U.S. taking "direct military action" to prevent Tehran from developing its nuclear capabilities.

This last stat is the key, because what DJT appears to be pondering is the US bombing of the underground Fordow uranium enrichment plant. Roughly 3 out of 4 Trump voters seem okay with that, if the poll is to be believed.

This puts me in mind of a parody lyric of the Beach Boys' hit Barbara Ann, in which the refrain goes: "Bomb, bomb, bomb ... bomb, bomb Iran." It dates back to the Reagan era.

Later ... I have subsequently seen another poll which finds essentially the reverse of that shown above. I suspect the second poll asked the general public while the first asked Trump voters.  We would expect different results from those two populations, not sure we'd expect differences of the size reported.

Indispensable

Watching Bret Baier of Fox News interview Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday, I was struck by how far he has surpassed his competitors in the broadcast and cable networks. If you want it from the horse's mouth, Baier will have that pony sitting for an interview and behaving themself.

With nothing much to lose, I fearlessly predict historians will declare Bret Baier the Walter Cronkite of the Trump era. His is the indispensable talking head even the opposition watches because those who matter want to sit opposite him and be interviewed. 

Who gets the credit? It certainly begins with Bret himself, he is a talented anchor. Some credit also goes to Brit Hume, his similarly talented predecessor and a bunch more to the Murdoch organization for recognizing the mostly empty market niche of a news show where conservatives are treated as reasonable humans with stories to tell and common sense perspectives.

Viewpoint Diversity

The Wall Street Journal runs an opinion piece by John Ellis, a prof at UC Santa Cruz.  He makes a very well reasoned argument for why funding agencies should demand viewpoint diversity among university faculty. 

Perhaps Ellis is conservative, or perhaps he is just a smart progressive. His column is excellent, and not behind the WSJ paywall.

We conservatives were darned scarce when I retired some 20+ years ago, even in the business school which you'd (incorrectly) suppose might be a hotbed of capitalist thought. It has only gotten worse since.

How bad is the campus anti-capitalist bias? Some campuses don't even have a business school, students who want to pursue a career in the private sector major in what is euphemistically called "applied economics." You can almost hear an 18th century upper class Brit sneering that a déclassé person is "in trade," said in much the same tones as claiming they were birthed on a dungheap by a slattern.

Whatever ... in the absence of viewpoint diversity, higher ed will continue to be seen as indoctrination academies serving a discredited ideology.

Wisdom

Instapundit Reynolds posts a quote worth keeping and cherishing, by economist Thomas Sowell.

If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.

Election Fraud Claim

Writing for PJ Media, Matt Margolis reports on information recently given by the new FBI Director Kash Patel to Sen. Grassley (R-IA).

The FBI had a relatively new confidential source who provided information in summer 2020 that the Chinese government was manufacturing and exporting fake U.S. driver's licenses as part of a plot to create voter identities for Chinese residents living in the United States so they could vote with fake mail-in ballots. The intelligence source claimed the plot was specifically designed to benefit Biden.

In fact, another agency, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, had intercepted nearly 20,000 fake licenses around the time the intelligence came in a possible corroboration of the report, officials said.

Then-FBI Director Chris Wray sat on the information so it did not become public knowledge and harm the Biden campaign.

Tuesday Snark

Image courtesy of Lucianne.com, 6/17/2025.

Lend-Lease

Iran has a nuclear enrichment site - Fordow - located under a mountain, some half mile down in man-made caves. Israel doesn't have the only weapon that site fears, the "bunker-buster bomb," and the B-2 heavy bomber to deliver it. Those the US has.

The solution to this dilemma is 84 years old, courtesy of President Franklin Roosevelt. FDR or one of his minions coined the term "lend-lease," which the FDR Library describes as follows.

He introduced to the public the idea of lending, as opposed to selling, military supplies to Britain. He likened the plan to lending a garden hose to a neighbor so that the neighbor could put out a fire in his house; the neighbor would then return the hose “intact” or, if it got “smashed up—holes in it—during the fire,” replace it with a new one.

We lend the Israelis a B-2, several bunker-buster bombs, and a couple of aerial refueling planes. They bomb Fordow into rubble, and return the plane to us. Trump explains our rationale as being the logical response to theocratic Iran which has our death as a primary national goal.

Have Some Fun

AI is doing some impressive stuff. See an extremely clever parody of the Mamas and Papas’ California Dreaming featuring Gov. Newsom and Mayor Bass in clown paint, the CA grizzly bear hamming it up, and President Trump performing the flute solo. Great lyrics too. 

California Freedom is genuinely entertaining, as well as politically on point. Enjoy!

No Change

Yesterday the Democrats held a series of rallies across the country under the banner of "No Kings." Their point being, one supposes, that President Trump has been acting king-like. 

With the national legislatures quite evenly split, and the Senate's filibuster requiring 60 votes to override, the legislative branch is more than a little stymied. If the government is going to do anything, the executive branch will have to do it. 

Trump as the executive has stepped up, and acted. Democrats are aghast. Hence their rallies.

The truth is this country has had no king since George III. His reign here ended in either 1776 with the Declaration of Independence or in 1783 when the revolutionary war ended, take your pick.

What worries Democrats is that Trump's popularity is more king-like than what most presidents achieve. As a showman, he "reads the room," plays to the crowd, and they love it.

So ... the US had no king last century, last decade, last year, and last week. Today, it still has no king, as I'm sure Trump would agree. It does have a hyperactive President, and I am happy about that.

Saturday Snark

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Friday Snark

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Some Migrants Are Progressve

 A couple of posts ago, I had one with two charts showing population migrating from so-called “sanctuary” states to states where illegal immigrants are not welcome. There is an interesting side effect you might not have noticed.

While most internal migrants are conservatives moving from blue states to red, there are also a few progressives leaving blue states. Hence the modest growth experienced by true-blue Vermont and Colorado. 

My conservative relatives in rural western CO hate that their state has become a destination for progressives fleeing the mess their policy preferences created back home on the coast.

Pathetic Padilla

US Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) forced his way into a press conference being held by DHS Secretary Noem, shouted at her, and was dragged out and handcuffed by security. He isn't a "famous face" like Rand Paul or Chuck Shumer and while he claimed to be a US Senator he didn't flash his ID. 

It was straight up street theater, an attempt to embarrass Noem and the Trump administration. It could have worked as his D colleagues were quick to jump to his defense. 

Except ... with no malicious intent toward Padilla ... Israel picked this evening to go to war against Iran. Talk about stepping on Padilla's moment of glory, they really sucked all the air out of his grandstanding. Karma is a bitch. 

It's likely they also stepped all over the "No Kings" anti-ICE protests scheduled for this weekend. Trump's luck is legendary, you could almost forgive POTUS for believing God is on his side. 

Sanctuary? Yes or No

The editorial board of the Issues & Insights website quantify the migration from states favoring sanctuary for illegal immigrants and to states which support ICE's actions to remove illegal immigrants. Their charts cover the four years of the Biden presidency.

I was going to describe these charts but I believe they speak for themselves ... eloquently.

Iran Preemptively Attacked

In case you haven't been paying attention, tonight Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites, ballistic missile sites, and military command centers. Israel has also targeted specific leaders of the IRGC, and reportedly killed its leader. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the attacks will continue until Iran's nuclear enrichment and weapon development programs are destroyed. As you can imagine, Israel is hunkered down expecting retaliatory strikes. 

SecState Rubio has announced the attacks were undertaken unilaterally by the Israelis, who have declared they were left no choice when Iran refused to stop nuclear weapon development. Rubio further cautioned Iran to avoid retaliation against US personnel in the region, saying we have not been involved in these strikes. Implicit in his warning is that we are not now attacking Iran but will do so if we are attacked. 

Iran has called for the death of Israel, which they call "the Little Satan" and of the United States which they call "the Great Satan." A view I share with many: if someone announces they seek your death, believe them and act accordingly. 

Iran has been a theocratic pain the butt for their Arab neighbors, for Israel, for the entire region, and for the US. Regime change in Iran would be fully justified, I wish Israel well in this endeavor.

Thursday Snark

Image courtesy of Lucianne.com, 6/12/2025.

Wednesday Snark

Image courtesy of NewsAmmo's Garrison Cartoons.