Every two years following the national election, Pew does a poll - the Validated Voter Survey - highly esteemed because it polls only individuals whom state voting rolls show actually voted in the recent election. Those findings just dropped for 2024, and they are very good indeed.
Republicans and GOP-leaning independents were 51% of the total electorate in 2024, up from 47% in 2020. Democrats and their affiliated indies dropped from 50% in 2020 to 48% in 2024. That 6-point shift in the partisan balance precisely mirrors Trump’s 6-point improvement in his popular vote margin.
In other words, Trump didn’t win because he got disaffected Democrats and independents to vote for him; he won because he got those people to switch parties entirely. [emphasis added]
Those who changed parties - to the MAGA GOP - are likely to keep voting GOP, absent some major screw-up or catastrophe. The D brand is becoming toxic to a majority of actual voters, excellent news.
