COTTonLINE’s favorite foreign policy analyst - George Friedman - has experienced an outbreak of optimism. We’ll take a look at what he foresees. Fortunately, he isn’t coy about why he thinks things are on the mend.
First, Friedman believes recent events suggest Putin has concluded he has to end the Ukraine war - on the best terms he can get - because his economy is sputtering and his war is stalled. He will have had to conclude Russia cannot recapture former imperial glory, after touting that as his avowed goal.
Second, Friedman believes we are on the threshold of a turning point in our relations with China.. Again economic determination seems to be his fulcrum.
He thinks a modus vivendi for Taiwan can be achieved that protects the status quo. He notes that, beyond the China Sea, China has not been militarily active. He believes the summit of Trump and Xi would not be happening if most sticking points hadn’t been worked out in advance by lower level functionaries.
Friedman foresees a final end to the Cold War, that began in 1945, and a new beginning globally. It is a beautiful dream that could happen if human cussedness doesn’t get in the way, as it so often does.
Is Friedman correct about both Putin and Xi experiencing an outbreak of realism? I am less certain than he. Nevertheless he makes an argument for both I believe you’ll find interesting. Whether you find it persuasive is up to you.
