Fool’s Gold? Maybe

I often like the work of David P. Goldman who, when he writes for an Asian paper, uses the pen name Spengler. Lately his work has been appearing in The American Mind, a publication of the Claremont Institute, home of the puckishly nicknamed "Claremonsters."

Today he tackles the twin problems of how to put the EU on a path to real self-defense and what to do about the Ukraine war. His approach is intriguing, as it relies on Europe’s nationalists to be empowered while Ukraine is left to cut the best possible deal with Putin and Russia. He believes the nationalists will defend Europe.

I fear his first premise is as likely as getting all EU citizens to paint their noses blue. My sense is that the majority of Europeans who don’t belong to one of the nationalist parties are in agreement that keeping nationalists out of power is “the hill they’ve agreed to die on.” They will "coalesce" with truly fringe groups to keep it from happening.

Goldman seems to feel otherwise, and clearly may know more about current EU sentiments than I. If the nationalists are opposed by majorities in most countries, then leaving Ukraine to bargain the best available deal from Russia is losing something without gaining anything in return. Putin wins and the EU is still dithering and undefended.

Goldman writes well, but I think this time he’s missed the mark. Take a look at his column and make your own judgment.

The 'Bomb' Was a Dud

Power Line's Steve Hayward posts a chart showing data from the UN and World Bank, here it is.

The stunner is in the headline, "Global fertility, set to fall below the replacement rate." Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb couldn't have been more wrong about population growth. 

That's the problem with projecting current trends out into the future. Sometimes a thing you believe is an immutable part of human nature turns out - given technological help and social change - to be a variable. 

Human sex drive is powerful; however birth control disconnected it from reproduction. Religions complain, but birth rates are also dropping in places where the dominant faith or political ideology would have it otherwise. 

Can you imagine writing the following sentence? "It is possible that the last South Korean will be born some time late in this century."

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Humans have wondered why our Earth hasn't been visited by space-faring extraterrestrials who had a couple of thousand years head start on us. Leave aside that perhaps we've been visited but they chose to be discreet and not mess with our heads by creating culture or tech shock.

Perhaps there is a point - one we humans are just reaching - when most or all intelligent species get control over whether they choose to be burdened with child-raising. Maybe liking the freedom, they basically quit. It might coincide with when the species gets substantial control over aging, enabling Methuselah-like lives for some.

Friday Snark

Images courtesy of Politico's Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Winter Is Coming

The days are getting very short, we’re almost to the shortest day of the year, which falls early this Saturday, the 21st. The exact crossover point is reported to be at 4:21 a.m. EST, 1:21 a.m. here in PST.

The winter solstice marks the shortest day, longest night, end of autumn, and the beginning of winter. It is the time when the days finally begin to lengthen. 

We humans have celebrated this milestone for several tens of centuries. The farther from the equator humans live, the more it rises in importance.

Religious holidays tend to cluster at this time of year but recognizing the solstice came first. Think Stone Henge and the Maya Calendar.

Personally, I am not happy when it’s too early for the evening meal and, looking out the window, it’s dark outside. I feel a bit cheated.

Hat tip to GoT House Stark for use of their “family words” as my title.

The DOGE Boys

Roughly a month to go to Inauguration Day - the official start of Trump 47 - and the ‘Department’ of Government Efficiency racks up their first win. I write with ‘’ around department because, of course it is an ad hoc NGO think tank headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy - the DOGE Boys.

Their win was killing a pork-laden “Christmas tree” continuing resolution to fund the government. President-elect Trump helped and can be credited with the assist.

Speaker Mike Johnson is facing a mandatory reelection vote on Jan. 3 and, with that as his prime agenda, had loaded the CR with enough pork to keep most on-board. As such, it met his reelection needs but the “survival in office” of Speaker Johnson isn’t a top-ten Trump priority. 

The dilemma of this is, if the crankier House Repubs oust Johnson, it isn’t clear who will or even can do a better job. It’s likely Trump will have to quietly dictate to the GOP House caucus, and hope they’ll follow.

My guess - Johnson continues as Speaker with his wrist slapped, and a few of the hotheads get taken to the woodshed by Trump or Vance. The problem is a too-damn-narrow majority in House seats. 

Literally everything hangs on a vote or two. The only way it works is with iron discipline of the sort Speaker Pelosi excelled at, and Republicans have yet to master, if it’s even possible for them.

I fear most won’t get the wordplay in the title. World War I American infantry were nicknamed “dough boys,” DOGE sounds like dough, Vivek and Elon both at least act youthful, so … DOGE boys. Alas, wordplay isn’t so much fun when spelled out.

He’s Short

Back in the day, when GIs were nearing the end of their enlistment, or the end of their time posted at a particular base or fort, their behavior would sometimes be a little “off” and they’d explain “I’m short.” It was GI slang for “I won’t be here long, and I don’t give a rip.” 

It most particularly referred to troops within days of completing their required one year tour in Vietnam, after which they were headed elsewhere, often home. 

After spending his life in government I’m betting that is how Joe Biden is feeling. The President gig isn’t fun anymore, his “duck” is so lame it’s crippled, and he’s looking forward to some new things in his life. 

He will no longer be stalked by press shouting questions at him. He keeps his security detail, if not quite so hover-y as now. He can go from being semi-retired on-the-job to completely retired off-the-job.

Given his unpleasant physical and mental challenges, that’s got to be a relief. Jill can lay off the Edith Wilson act and stop worrying about Joe embarrassing himself and her. 

He’s been one of the worst Presidents of my political memory, which goes back to Ike. Failure to get reelected is the public’s judgment that they agree, few presidents fail that test. 

The presidency happened to Joe too late in life and you could almost feel sorry for him. I’m not young myself, and know facing up to and accepting one’s progressive inability to do today things at which you once excelled is painful and sad.

A Murderer’s Fans

A recent study found some 41 percent of young Americans under 30 at least somewhat supported the assassination of a health insurance executive in NYC. A roughly equal number opposed the cold-blooded ideological murder of a man the killer had (apparently) never met, and never been personally wronged by. Evidently some 18-19 percent had no opinion (!) or, perhaps wisely, refused to answer at all.

I find this data point nearly unbelievable and horrifying, perhaps you do too. How much more evidence do we need this society is on the wrong path, with certain factions intentionally raising monsters? 

That the young murderer did what he did is more proof we need to do a much better societal job of managing mental health. That many of his age peers supported to some extent his vile act is just gross. 

Somewhere he awaits trial in a jail cell. There a defense attorney is showing him this polling and giving him hope of an acquittal at best and at least a Robin Hood-like reputation, depending on jury selection.

Our society has had outbreaks of this sickness before, remember the stories and songs memorializing the outlaw Jesse James? Some viewed him as a hero. Sundance and Butch Cassidy, Bonnie and Clyde ditto. And I suppose Joaquin Murrietta had his fans too. Truly, we should be ashamed of these creeps.

The Pain in Spain Is Echoed in Ukraine

An article at Politico.eu looks at the “internationalization” of the war that began simply enough between attacker Russia and attacked Ukraine. Over time aid, weapons, and some troops from many other places have been drawn in. 

Over time the conflict has come to resemble the meat-grinder stalemate of the World War I trenches, eating up men and material without much progress on either side. The article suggests that World War III has begun in Ukraine. I don’t entirely disagree with the “World War III precursor” label. 

Given the ethnic similarity of these two initial combatants - Russia and Ukraine - I’d argue perhaps a better model for the conflict is the Spanish Civil War. It became the “out-of-town tryout” for World War II.

The German and Italian Fascists pitched in to aid the Franco-led Nationalist side. USSR and its Communist sympathizers from across the world supported the so-called ‘Republican’ side. (no relation to U.S. Republican Party). Similar outside help now flows to the sides in Ukraine.

Outsider supporters in Spain perfected weaponry and learned lessons they later used throughout World War II. Lessons are also being learned in Ukraine, particularly the many uses of drones, the gluttonous material consumption and necessity of stockpiling munitions.

In Spain, both sets of outside supporters successfully limited their own commitment enough to stay clear of becoming actual co-combatants for the most part. The war did not significantly spread beyond Spain’s borders. So far this is true of Ukraine.

Many volunteers went to Spain to participate and were memorialized in literature, song and film at the time and since. Volunteers have also supported both sides in Ukraine. If a similar ‘hagiography’ emerges from Ukraine it will probably be first written in Russian, Ukrainian, Korean or Spanish.

The temptation to finish this essay with the next line from the My Fair Lady lyric - “By George, she’s got it!” - is irresistible.

Health Insurance - Not a Fun Gig

Thinking about the assassination of the health insurance executive in NYC, as a former management prof I come up with maybe a perspective most haven’t thought about. First of all, can we agree we find health insurance pretty expensive, even painfully so?

I know of many examples where the following is true, so I will state it as a general premise. No nation anywhere has been able to pay for as much first class health care or insurance as the populace would happily consume more or less immediately if cost was no object. 

In fact attempts to project what those costs might entail so quickly become preposterous as to be ludicrous. Something like “greater than the GDP.”

What is a health insurance executive to do? He fights fraud, writes limitations into policies, and turns down paying for unreasonable procedures of low probable benefit to continued life/health, and won’t cover preexisting conditions unless the coverage is under a big group plan that enrolls a lot of young, healthy people. 

At every turn he offends people - some are disappointed crooks, some are hypochondriacs or cranks. Many are decent folk who are hurting with rare or chronic or genetic conditions that fall through the cracks.

In spite of his best efforts, the insurance his firm sells still costs too much and the premiums rise too fast and that pisses off more people. It is an occupation requiring a thick hide, and a tough but caring heart. 

Most of us sort of sense the above and grumble but go along because the system, for all its faults, sort of works most of the time for most people. There is a sort of stop-gap minimal coverage with ridiculous wait times for the dirt poor, some of whom go untreated. 

For the rest of us, depending on income, care gets better as we can pay more, either in fees or premiums or taxes. Like many other problems in life, throwing money at health issues at least sometimes makes them go away or holds them at bay.

However, as John Maynard Keynes memorably reminded us, “In the long run, we are all dead.”

Action Demanded … Fairness Optional

The Hill reports very interesting post-election polling looking at why America voted as it did six weeks ago. Its key finding summarized:

While voters are less trusting of the government as a result of the election, they believe the government will be more effective and can get things done.

If I may be permitted a translation of this pithy conclusion? It appears the government under Biden appeared impotent, an enfeebled giant unable to accomplish its manifold missions.

Democrats - obsessing over fairness - were perceived to be dithering, doing nothing for fear of hurting feelings. Republicans - especially Trump - were seen as “doers,” folk who get stuff done at the cost of some bruised egos.

I hope they’re correct as much needs righting. An interesting conclusion and - better still - one I had not reached independently but agree with.

ABC News - Wrong Again

Some years ago one of Obama’s people - Ben Rhodes - memorably made waves by claiming, truthfully enough, that young reporters “literally know nothing.” I’m reminded of this by the false claim ABC News made against Trump’s pick to head the Department of Education - Linda McMahon - less than a week ago.

In the first minute of an eight-minute overview, O’Brien stated that McMahon has no formal education training and little experience:

“If she receives Senate confirmation, McMahon, who has no formal teaching training and little experience in education, will be tasked with setting policies for the nation’s schools.”

This is patently false. While receiving a bachelor’s degree in French at East Carolina University in the late 1960s, McMahon earned a teaching certificate after completing a teacher preparation program at the school. 

In fact at approximately this same late 60s era California - then (but no longer) an education leader - had abolished the Bachelor of Education degree statewide. Instead CA required all would-be teachers to accomplish a degree in a major and subsequently complete the teaching certificate program. This is exactly what McMahon did as a young woman. 

I know this about CA because the other DrC followed that curriculum before we married and she explained the state’s rationale for doing so to me in some detail. Like everyone in her cohort in CA she completed a B.A. (hers in Social Studies/History) followed by a teaching credential program.

Fratricide

I just read of the explosive assassination of a senior Russian general outside his Moscow-area home. Ukraine claims the responsibility for it. The claim seems likely.

This gets me to thinking of how tough an opponent Russia voluntarily took on. Ukraine is literally nextdoor and many of its citizens are native Russian speakers. The analogy would be if the US attacked Canada.

On a nearly month-long cruise to Australia that ended coincidentally a month ago, our tablemates at supper were a family of four very nice Canadians. I never once heard “eh?” pronounced “long a with a rising inflection” nor “about” pronounced “aboot.” In other words their speech patterns didn’t give away their nationality at all. 

That they had relatives living in the States was nearly a given. With forged or stolen documents they could pass as residents of Ohio or Michigan or Minnesota and totally get away with the subterfuge. 

My point: There are obviously thousands of Ukrainians who could pass for Russians beyond the ability of any passerby or tablemate to detect. Go to war against such similar folk, and find out their ability to infiltrate your land and do you harm is nearly infinite. 

Obviously, Ukraine is doing some of this, and could do much more of it. It would create mass paranoia far beyond the Russian historical norm of chronic, low grade paranoia. Be glad we get along with the Canadians.

The FBI on Jan.6

Power Line's excellent John Hinderaker has a careful summary of what the FBI did and did not do on Jan. 6. Whether you believe it or not, I'm inclined to do so. It's based on a report done by a Michael Horowitz, the DOJ's IG.

Reading between the lines we see that in addition to 5 individuals the FBI knew were in the crowd, there were another 23 confidential informants who decided on their own to go to the Capitol.

Of these 23 informants who traveled to DC on their own with no assignment, 13 notified their FBI agent handler, and 10 did not. Of the 13 who notified their agent handler, the Washington Field Office of the FBI (WFO) was informed of just 2. Of the 26 total informants present during the January 6th events, the WFO was aware of 5 – the 3 on active assignment and 2 of the 23 who were there on their own accord.

Though not Federal employees with civil service protections, all of these c.i. individuals work for the FBI, either as gig contractors or to stay out of jail. All of them want to impress their handler-boss, in hopes of a bonus, further gigs or a "clean sheet." 

They were tasked to surveil and report on suspicious individuals and groups the misdeeds of which interested the FBI. Reporting those targeted individuals or groups were behaving peacefully, lawfully wins no prizes. It suggests the FBI is wasting money on the c.i., the subject or both.

Let's understand what "with no assignment" means. It means there is no documentary record showing the. c.i.s were ordered to go to the Capitol by the FBI. 

That's because they were still under continuing orders to stick to their targets. They followed those continuing orders to stay close to their targets and tagged along.

11 of 13 handlers who knew in advance chose not to tell the Bureau what their c.i. was doing. That suggests the Bureau was copacetic with their attendance.

The other 10 c.i.s understood a "stick to your target" mission obviously included going to the Capitol and didn't bother to tell their handlers. 

What are the odds that some number of the 23 were active inciters of the rioters, either to maintain their cover or to create juicier gossip to report to the Bureau? I'd estimate those odds are excellent. 

The Bureau maintains "deniability" in this fashion. Any c.i. misdeeds were their own bad choices, not FBI orders.

COTTonLINE translation of the above: Horowitz told a carefully curated version of the truth. He left out the most obvious part. 

The FBI builds cases leading to convictions; when successful those are "wins" in Bureau culture, and would improve the handler’s outcomes and therefore those of the c.i.s. The worse the crime, the longer the sentence, the bigger the win. 

It would seem FBI gig employees, who dissemble for a living, were structurally encouraged to make the situation worse. The surprise would be if few of them did that.

Monday’s Mini Lecture

Decades ago I remember sharing a concern with my Business Management students about displaced workers. Then the threat was automation which was beginning to replace factory workers. But what I told my students then remains true today.

I said, you can replace those individuals with smart machines but that doesn’t mean those men (and some women) simply vanish. They still live near you, need to buy groceries, send their kids to school, and need medical care. 

But far more than those mundane requirements, they need new occupations to give their lives focus and meaning. “Learn to code” was never a sensible response, different mental and physical skills are needed and they won’t simply pop into existence, however much you want them to do so.

Nobody paid attention to me then I suspect, and haven’t since. The threat long since morphed into sending the physical jobs overseas where poor people with lower living costs will gladly do them more cheaply even than robots. 

Whatever the poobahs in charge said about caring for the displaced workers was them blowing smoke up your backside. Their behavior clearly showed their true attitude: “This isn’t our problem.” The jobs went away, but many simple (and some highly complex) things became inexpensive which almost everyone enjoyed. 

It took awhile for the other shoe to drop. In their tens of thousands, men (and some women) who would have thrived in factory jobs, lived full lives, raised fine children, bought inexpensive homes, coached little league teams, gone fishing or bowling, and retired on union pensions had no way to do those things. No real prospects of utilizing their common sense, work ethic and physical vitality. Of living the American Dream.

So we began seeing blue-collar lives fall apart, marriage and birth rates decline, overdoses accelerate, suicides and disability claims skyrocket. Someone started calling the early deaths “deaths of despair” which in fact they were. 

Do you know who has been listening the whole time, not to me but to the working folk? Donald J. Trump, he realizes we need manufacturing here at home. For defense reasons to be certain, but also for a healthy working class living healthy lives, contributing to society instead of being a drag thereupon.

If goods cost a bit more to make here, not having to manage a drugged-out, suicidal, often homeless stratum of society will cost less. That’s a good trade-off in my mind, and I hope in yours. 

And we get a defense benefit thrown in as a bonus. Doing so will weaken our most immediate, credible foreign threat: China.

(Thus endeth the lesson. DrC folds his notes, closes his attaché case, looks ruefully at the class, and departs.)

A Positive Hegseth Story

The legacy media will be certain you learn every little thing Pete Hegseth has ever been imagined to have done wrong, they need no help from me. Would you like to learn something Pete did right, and which impressed both a fellow serviceman and our President-elect very much? 

This column at American Thinker couldn’t be more laudatory, and is obviously based on checkable facts. It shows Hegseth has history with Donald Trump and I’m sure they’re on the same page. That is what SecDef needs to be effective.

Remembering Twin

I’m scanning the web and come across this article that whines about a T.J.Maxx store located near the bridge crossing over a Snake River canyon in southern Idaho. As it happens, the other DrC and I crossed that bridge many times en route from CA to WY, or the return trip over 20+ years, ending perhaps four years ago. Hence this nostalgia-fueled musing.

Yes the canyon is scenic and probably should have been declared a National Park or Monument. Like other wonders - think Lake Tahoe or the CA coastline - it wasn’t designated prior to development. Now it’s too late, a sadly common situation in our great land.

A major east-west Interstate (84) runs parallel to the north shore of the Snake at that point and another, lesser-known but important north-south highway (US 93) crosses the gorge on an excellent bridge bringing traffic north from I-80.

The people who actually live in southern Idaho built a city there by the river which the bridge made feasible. They needed places to shop, eat, recreate, worship, tend the sick and wounded, and bury their dead. Twin Falls, ID is the resulting regional shopping, religious and medical center for the surrounding agricultural areas.

Forty-six miles south of “Twin,” as it is known locally, just across the NV border is a classic NV border village - Jackpot - built around a couple of casinos. Most years on the trips back and forth we’d park the RV in a casino RV park and eat supper in the coffeeshop. Gambling-subsidized grub and lodging was perfect for a couple of non-gamblers. 

Nobody will complain that the terrain at Jackpot should have been preserved. Nevada has another 7 million acres or more of equally disinteresting, empty landscape, mostly used as poor, low quality pasture. Having driven across NV many times - both north-south and east-west - I think of it as part of the “empty quarter.” Much of inland SoCal, AZ, and NM fit this definition too.

Did Luigi Have an Accomplice?

Much has been written about the young man - Luigi Mangione - who shot the health care exec to death on a Manhattan street quite early in the morning. Maybe he’s crazy or maybe he was on some drug.

What I want to know is how he was able to determine where the exec would be on that particular morning on foot on that piece of sidewalk? Mangione got there ahead of time, recognized him in the early morning gloom, and confidently shot him from behind.

The meeting he was headed for may have been advertised, but that the exec would walk to the meeting from his hotel (instead of taking a cab) using that particular route argues someone quite familiar with the exec’s standard operating procedure provided the info. Perhaps posting it on the dark web at an anarchist  bulletin board?

Who would have such info? Family or his personal assistant would be the first choices. If Mangione knew someone in the exec’s family or work associates it has not been revealed.  

About the weird posting time below: I am about half-sick at the moment and sleeping at irregular hours.

Teachers’ Unions Losing Members

John Hinderaker chronicles the modest decline of teachers unions and hopes for more. As long time readers may remember, I have opposed teachers unions for-close-to-ever. 

When the faculty of the university system of which I was a member voted on union representation, I voted “no.” Needless to say I was outvoted and a faculty union came into being. 

I had only two choices, join and pay dues or pay “representation” fees without being a member. I chose the latter. And retired sometime later having been forced to contribute to a system, some of whose policies and all of whose politics, I opposed.

It changed in 2018 when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled, in Janus v. AFSCME, that public employees cannot constitutionally be forced to join or contribute financial support to a union. Janus restored the freedom of teachers and other public sector employees, and opened the door to reform.

Janus obviously came too late to help me, as I’d completely retired from teaching 10 or more years earlier. Nevertheless Janus is an important step in wringing some of the coerced, involuntary contributions to Democrat candidates out of the national system. 

Hinderaker documents a decline of 11,000 members in MN alone since 2019. And the National Education Association - the largest national teachers union - lost 17,000+ members in the past fiscal year alone. 

Teachers unions spend little of their funds on actually representing teachers. The main “hit” from such losses is upon political activities on behalf of Democrat candidates. 

Europe’s New ‘Queen’

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy is a phenomenon in Europe. John Hinderaker of Power Line posts quotes about her from the London Times.

Roberto D’Alimonte, a politics professor at Luiss University in Rome, said: “She is the only prime minister of a major EU country who can expect to be there in three years — it’s a kind of stability Italy is not known for.” A senior official in the last Tory government put it more bluntly: “When she hosted the G7 meeting [in June], everyone else was a dead man walking.”

A British official says “She’s funny, she’s flirty, she’s charismatic with quite a gravelly voice. She gets on with with people who are different from her.”

Both Trump and Musk are impressed too. Meloni has made a good beginning. 

Let’s hope her ‘reign’ turns out better than Angela Merkel’s. It’s easy to look ‘regal’ when the competition are all political ‘zombies’ - a too-frequent occurrence in Europe. 

Obama’s Failed Puppet

At its best, good journalism provides a “first read” of the history of an era. Here the New York Post provides a fine example of exactly that, authored by historian Victor Davis Hanson.

Former President Barack Obama had long been rumored as the catalyst for the 2020 Joe Biden nomination — and thereafter played the whispering puppeteer behind the subsequent lost Biden administration years.

As such, he and his coterie proved the virtual architects of the Biden administration, one of the most unpopular and failed presidencies in American history. (sources in original)

Obama proved to be a typical symbolic DEI hire: who he was more important than what he did. Based on accomplishments in office, he was a mostly unsuccessful president. 

Obama managed to extend his own failed presidency for another four years under Biden. Biden lacked the Obama DEI cachet, hence Harris as VP. The untalented Biden managed to underperform Obama.  

The preposterously mislabeled “lightbringer,” Obama has left us in a dark place, both domestically and overseas. In November we found ourselves in a hole and, mirabile dictu, we stopped digging.  The relief most of us are feeling recently is the result of starting to put the Obama/Biden mess behind us.