Where We Are ... My View

I'm guessing Trump is not pushing the Iranian regime for a deal because he believes an internal civil war is more likely if we aren't bombing the crap out of them. Being actively attacked tends to paper over differences, whereas economic warfare (the blockade) might exacerbate internal differences.

This of course raises questions. First, is a civil war possible given the IRGC has most of the guns? Second, will life get bad enough fast enough for enough Iranians to shift the national center of gravity? And third, what proportion of the IRGC aren't martyrdom-seeking fanatics but signed on as a smart career move and are faking to-the-death commitment. I don't know those answers, I'm not certain anybody knows.

I do know the conventional wisdom is that regime change requires boots on the ground. Trump seems to be betting that's no longer true, we'll see what happens.

The IRGC … Latter-day Templars

Here is a link to another column discussing the internal conflict in Iran. Eric Florack writes at PJ Media that Iran could be en route to a civil war featuring the IRGC vs. the civil government.

The IRGC, he claims, reports both directly and exclusively to the Supreme Leader, the top Ayatollah. He likens it to a company, I think it more nearly resembles the Knights Templar.

The Templars were a Catholic military order that became so powerful and wealthy eventually the Pope saw them as a threat to his own power. He excommunicated them and had them slaughtered.

Florack is right about one thing, if the IRGC cannot continue spreading havoc across the Middle East and beyond, they have no reason to exist. So don’t expect them to “go quietly.” If they go at all it will as the Templars went - violently.

Never Popular

Power Line’s Scott Johnson posts commentary by Harvey Mansfield, a very rare bird indeed. He was a Harvard professor of government, now retired, who is a Republican! My favorite quote:

Affirmative action was never popular. By effectively excluding white males, it violated the basic rule your mama teaches that two wrongs don’t make a right. It was originally said to be temporary because those it benefited would catch up and become equal. But when that did not happen, it had to substitute “equity” for equality, and make affirmative action permanent.

And to cover over this move, professors entered the sensitive practice of grading and created a false equality by giving everyone an A. Grade inflation was the necessary companion of affirmative action.

Proverbially, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Nevertheless, it is still hellish.

PL Agrees

On Saturday I wrote about dead or missing rocket and nuclear scientists raising suspicions. I concluded it was likely a coincidence. That a fair number of such cases happen with regularity, perhaps as many as are claimed, without anything nefarious occurring.

Today Power Line's John Hinderaker chimes in with the same basic view. It won't hurt to investigate but don't be surprised if the whole thing quietly dies, for lack of evidence of foul play.

A Casablanca Clone

We are all familiar with the Bogart - Bergman film Casablanca, I have watched it repeatedly and you have probably done the same. Less well know is the Bogart - Bacall film To Have and Have Not, which I watched for the first time last night. 

I recorded it off TCM because I often like Bogart films and the personal 'chemistry' between the stars is well-known. My reaction to THHN is the following.

The two films have very similar plots, are set in similar 'exotic' locales, deal with Vichy and Free French conflicts, and honestly, THHN could almost been 'cribbed' off the Casablanca script. They didn't have the same writers and this time the guy Bogey plays seems to get the girl (actually irl). 

What was the fascination with French colonial backwaters? Sleazy dives and the lowlifes that inhabit them make sense, so does a main character with at least some freedom of action. Hoagy Carmichael couldn't rescue the THHN music, Casablanca's Sam was much superior.

My overwhelming reaction to THHN was it was pleasant enough but it felt like a Casablanca clone. with a less memorable supporting cast.

Why the Unhappy Turn Left

Power Line’s John Hinderaker does a nice column summarizing what is known about conservatives being happier people than liberals. This is true internationally and has been known for decades. A quote I particularly like.

People who are unwell may be especially attracted to liberal politics over conservatism for a variety of reasons, and this may exacerbate observed ideological gaps net of other factors.

What he is reaching for here is “projection,” the psychological term for seeing in others or in society the cause of one’s own shortcomings. It is a defense mechanism. It is easier to blame society for one’s failures, instead of recognizing one’s own failures.

Saturday Snark

Churchill vs. Starmer

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Images courtesy of RealClearPolitics'

Cartoons of the Week.

Sadly, Dead or Missing Happens

I understand President Trump has taken an interest in a series of deaths and disappearances of researchers and scientists involved with “classified aerospace, defense and UFO information."

These scientists “felt some form of threat” and “left all of their devices at home” before they dropped out of sight.

Just for fun, I’ll start the rumor the dead and missing are Illuminati going dark or dying as a result of a purge by that organization, undertaken for unknown nefarious motives. Or maybe the little gray ETs are to blame. Our world’s so bizarre either could be true, although a largish coincidence is most likely.

Let me propose a test. Someone calculate the total number of such individuals in our nation and the likelihood of any random citizen going missing or dying in suspicious circumstances. Let's see if this group's apparent anomaly is within or near the realm of possibility before we "cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war." Hat tip to Shakespeare for the phrase.

Happenings in Our Hemisphere

Like Trump, I take a continuing interest in our hemisphere, having traveled it somewhat extensively. PJ Media runs a column I like by Sarah Anderson who defines Central and South America as her beat. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link. 

Some Fridays she plans to do a survey of what tops the headlines in most if not all of the countries in the region. I enjoyed the current sample and learned some things. 

For example, did you know that in Brazil Flavio Bolsonaro - the son of the former conservative President Jair Bolsonaro (currently imprisoned) - now leads in polls ahead of a new presidential election scheduled for October? The leftist incumbent Lula de Silva is losing popularity in those polls.

I enjoyed her column and have made a mental note to seek it out semi-regularly.

The Dilemma

It was always going to be difficult making an agreement with Iran. The IRGC and the national government have different goals. 

Iran's government loves the nation - their home - and knows it to be beaten. They want to make a deal to save what's left of it for their friends, relatives, and countrymen.

"Iran" isn't even a part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' name. The IRGC is a cause or crusade, not a nation. Has Iran been a useful and convenient host? Yes. Is Iran essential to IRGC goals going forward? Maybe not.

Try this analogy - Catholicism and Italy. If something awful happened to Rome, or to all of Italy, Catholicism would continue. Would Catholics give up their faith to save Italy? No one would expect them to do so. Why expect the IRGC to give up their cause to save Iran? 

The IRGC commitment is to Shia Islam's political goals, which it views as essential precursors to its religious goals. Without nuclear weapons they cannot win, giving up the progress made toward nukes is giving up their cause, and without their cause, Iran has little value to them.

Convincing patriotic Iranians their country should give up fighting everyone and, as Trump has asked, become a normal nation is doable. Trump likely has done that. 

Convincing IRGC zealots to give up their cause is orders of magnitude harder. I remain unconvinced that has been done, and wonder if it can be done.

Later … From Bill Glahn posting at Power Line.

This is no longer a single “Iran.” Different factions are fighting for overall control, in the meantime the scale of their humiliating military defeat cannot be revealed to the public lest a popular uprising ensue.

Mark Nailed It

Apropos of the public spat between our elected President and the Roman Church's pastor-in-chief, I am thinking of a line from Mark 12:17.

Jesus said unto them, Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's.

The role of Caesar is currently occupied by Donald J. Trump, and will be so until Jan. 20, 2029. I am unaware that Trump has made any significant Christian doctrinal pronouncements. Leo intruded into Don's sandbox, and Don 'invited' him to leave.

Friday Memes

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Polls: Trump Up Among GOP

John Nolte writes at Breitbart about phony claims Trump’s popularity is falling among Republicans (links in original).

Between March and April in the far-left Quinnipiac poll, support for Trump among Republicans increased from 72 percent to 81 percent.

Similarly, a poll from the Economist/YouGov shows an increase in Republican support for the president. What had been an 82 percent approve, 14 percent disapproval rating in March has risen by four net points to 84 percent approve, 12 percent disapprove.

Translation: Our MAGA guy is doing what we elected him to do and we like it. How else could you read those numbers? If someone with an audience disses him - for instance the Pope - he disses them right back.

Impediments to Academic Reform

As a retired professor, I have a continuing interest in the health and well-being of academia. In recent years it has experienced ill health and less-than-well-being; bluntly, academia jumped the shark.

Higher Ed has become - to a repulsive degree - a hotbed of leftist indoctrination, an enthused practitioner of DEI, and entirely too expensive. Doing so has squandered the high levels of public goodwill and trust it formerly enjoyed.

Recently some of those who value the academy have taken note and are trying to rein in its excesses. They are finding it a very difficult task.

Instapundit links to a James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal column providing advice to campus leaders, Its subtitle: “Why it’s so tough to reform colleges … and tips that might help.” 

The column can help outsiders understand unique features of academia that make it change-resistant. Candidly, the column does a better job on the “tough” part than it does on the “tips,” but it makes a start.

Weeding Out Bad Commentary

There has been a sh*t ton of bad commentary on the war in Iran, and some that isn't bad at all. One of the latter is this Substack column by an Australian writing as Lorenzo from Oz. Among other things, he's apparently something of a historian. Hat tip to Sarah Hoyt posting at Instapundit for the link.

I particularly call your attention to Lorenzo's notion of strategy being a decision tree. Implicit in the idea is that much as you might deplore it, the enemy has some independence of action. You have to be prepared to deal with whatever tactics and strategy he comes up with. And to take advantage of any unexpected opportunities which occur.

Happy Tax Day

A quick note to wish all COTTonLINE readers a Happy Tax Day. I hope yours are filed, ours may not be quite yet.

I had our CPA file for an extension as I was having difficulty getting a 2025 tax statement from my broker. That problem is finally resolved.

I will get the result someday soon, and we'll find out how much excess withholding we're getting back. It is normally a fair amount. I wish the same for y'all.

Democracy Is a Process, Not a Platform

A Rod Dreher quote I really like, offered in the context of Viktor Orbán losing his reelection bid.

It’s hard for globalists to understand, but it’s still democracy when people vote in ways you don’t like.

In a long life, this has happened to me entirely too often. Obama and Biden being recent examples I didn't find pleasing, your list may vary.

The Oil Must Flow

A closeup headshot of Princess Irulan (above), who solemnly intones the following.

In this time the most precious substance on the planet is oil. Oil powers our world, oil is a part of most products, oil is vital to civilized life. The airlines use oil, which gives them the ability to fly, that is, travel to any part of the world in a day.

Oh yes, I forgot to tell you, much of the oil exists in only one part of the entire planet, a desolate, dry region, with vast deserts. Hidden away within the rocks of these deserts are a people known as the Shia, who have long held a prophecy that a man would come - the twelfth imam - who would lead them to true freedom.

The region is plagued with eternal turmoil and yet  . . .  the oil must flow. 

Hat tips to Frank Herbert, David Lynch and, more recently, to Stephen Green for the inspiration.

Another Option

Thinking about the Firefly renewal discussed yesterday. Animation is mentioned as the intended medium. I have another idea. 

How about feeding the 2002 images of the cast into an AI plus the scripts of the new episodes and have it create the imagery, with human oversight to catch and eliminate things like too many fingers or extra hands? Obviously pay the cast members for the use of their images, maybe even give them limited say-so (if desired) on what their characters are shown doing.

I have the feeling AI has reached the point where the above is doable, and production costs should be much less. The product should resemble the first season, not like a detailed set of drawings. 

The Orbán Loss

Writing for Brussels Signal, Henry Olsen dissects why Fidesz and Viktor Orbán lost the Hungarian presidency. Here is a key insight.

Fidesz wasn’t entrusted with government to enrich its friends and protect them from justice. It was elected to make Hungarians richer materially and spiritually.

Any Western European government that had experienced scandal and a stagnant economy would expect to be tossed on its rear come election time. That’s what happened to Britain’s Conservatives in 1997 and 2024, and that’s what happened to Viktor Orbán.

Indeed.