Vance vs Rubio

Vice President Vance said many nice things about "progress" with Iran as he led the negotiations that ultimately failed. SecState Rubio kept quiet. In picking one of the two as a presidential nominee in 2028, who do you think came out better? It is Rubio, is it not?

Vance took a risk, likely at Trump's insistence, and it failed. Trump now bad mouths Iran, after saying quite a few positive things himself. But Trump can't run again, so his comments are old news, not relevant to 2028. 

Basically, I think Trump threw Vance under the bus, figuring he was disposable. Trust Trump to find a use for a Vice President, something many presidents never quite manage, certainly Biden didn't.

In my judgment, Rubio is talented, smart and tough. I hope to be able to vote for him a couple of years from now. Caveat: two years is an eternity in politics, my opinion may change.

Good News

Analysis reported by the Center for Immigration Studies of the impact of immigration enforcement on employment of US natives. A priori, you'd expect native employment to rise as competition by illegal immigrants falls. CIS finds the expected:

When 2025 and 2026 are looked at separately using within-year consistent survey weights, they show two million and 1.9 million increases, respectively, in the number of natives employed.

Hat tip to RealClearPolicy for the link. Thank the Trump administration for being serious about border enforcement and deporting illegal immigrants.

Who Murders Whom, and Who Doesn't

RealClearInvestigations cites some interesting statistics about crime in the US. I hope you don't find them surprising.

Murders in the U.S. are usually highly concentrated geographically, often connected to street gang activity, and threaten only a tiny fraction of Americans. Just 2% of counties account for approximately 54% of all murders, and within those counties roughly two-thirds of killings occur within areas covering only about ten city blocks. By contrast, 53% of U.S. counties report no murders in a typical year, while another 16% report only one. (source)

So, roughly 7 out of 10 counties report one or fewer murders per year. No wonder most of us don't live in perpetual fear of random, imminent death. 

We know which areas to avoid (poor sections of large cities), do so, and leave those who wish to kill each other to their brief, violent lives. We never think about being shot, much less shooting someone.

The Sad Truth

Image courtesy of today's Lucianne.com.

The Trump Appeal

In thinking about the Graham Platner star shell that arced across the political firmament and then burst into a thousand little pieces when he dropped out, Megan McArdle makes acute observations. Check out her brief analysis.

People in NYC used to say that Trump was "a poor person's idea of a rich person"--which was supposed to be a dunk and actually described his political appeal. Dems trying to tap that same populist energy instead selected a rich person's idea of a poor person.

As a prep school kid, Platner was no kind of poor person. In fact he is on 100% disability payments from the government, in spite of looking dang healthy and being energetic enough to campaign and force himself on women. He not only doesn't need to work, doing so would likely jeopardize his monthly dole.

Have You Heard of "Aprium"?

Have you heard of aprium? It is a hybrid fruit that is approximately 3/4 apricot and 1/4 plum. The DrsC were clueless until a long-time friend made some aprium jam and sent us a jar.

We did what any sensible person would do, made some biscuits and dug in. Aprium has a very nice flavor, strongly reminiscent of apricots but with that plum undertone it is something special - sweet and flowery at the same time.

I wonder if anyone is selling aprium jam or jelly? It is a winner. No major labels yet, I am certain. 

Has DJT Given Up Negotiating?

It took much too long for President Trump to arrive at the conclusion many of us have had from the get-go. Namely, that dealing with Iran's current government is not possible. He seems to say that now, finally.

Assume that Iran believes what they have publicly said for 47 years. Specifically, that the USA is a literal instrumentality of Satan, and that as believers the only goal possible to them is our complete and total annihilation. 

No actual deal that permits our continued existence is morally possible to Iran. Any apparent deal they 'negotiate' or 'sign' is merely stringing us along, buying time. The goal - our extinction - hasn't gone away.

We can speculate at Trump's reasons for trying to make a deal. However, I fear we will not know precisely his motives until after he is out of office for several years, if even then.

Ugly Americans vs. Ugly Allies

A Canadian writes some very wise observations about relations between the US and its sometimes condescending allies. He notes a tendency among the latter to excuse China’s excesses while over-criticizing ours. RealClearWorld has the article.

He correctly sees Trump as a reaction to decades of over-reliance on the US military and under-investment by wealthy countries in their own defense. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caught them napping and the scramble to rearm has been comical. 

Seeking more empathy on both sides, Nagy writes a good column. See his conclusion.

A durable order requires shared burdens, honest acknowledgment of trade-offs, and the humility to admit contradictions. Without that, middle-power fantasies will remain just that: fantasies. And American voters will continue to ask why they should tolerate whiny, hypocritical allies who demand protection while withholding respect.

Read the whole thing.

Tuesday Humor

The following wisecrack was posted to Instapundit by Stephen Green, who was reposting an X by Jimmy Failla. 

Elizabeth Warren wants to retract her endorsement of Graham Platner but she doesn’t want to look like an Indian giver.

A Change Coming in Ukraine?

COTTonLINE’s current favorite foreign policy analyst - George Friedman - writes a column anticipating a possible change in Russian strategy in Ukraine. He notes Tass, Russia’s official news outlet, now calling the Ukraine affair a “war” instead of a “special military operation.” 

Tass, speaking for Russia, is blaming the west - “Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo and, unfortunately, Washington” - for putting the conflict on a new footing, that of war. Friedman speculates this could be used to justify attacking the nations listed, with the claim they made it into a “war.” Or it could justify the use of so-called “tactical” nukes in Ukraine.

Or, candidly, it could be nothing more than a ploy to frighten the west into reducing aid to Ukraine. Guessing what Russia is up to has always been a crap shoot. They don’t do policy discussions openly.

It’s Who They Were

Charlton Heston, thirty years ago speaking on behalf of a Republican candidate, saying this.

We have to get back to the values and perceptions of those wise old dead white guys who invented this country.

His response to the woke hassling he got for saying it is priceless.

Let’s see now, they were wise, they were old, they’re dead, they were white guys, and they invented this country. Which word in that sentence don’t you understand?

That certainly describes Washington, Jefferson, Franklin, Adams, Hamilton, and Madison, the architects of our republic. Scott Johnson of Power Line posts the quotes.

A possible quibble: Jefferson wasn't especially old when he wrote the Declaration of Independence.

Sunday Snark

⬆That's Andrew (pretending to be Sarah) McBride.

Images courtesy of David Strom's Sunday Smiles.

The Harm of Illegal Immigration

The Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve Bank reports the effects of illegal immigration upon income and housing costs.

From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode.

We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, without significant declines in local wages. These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. Lastly, we find that UIWF reduced labor income per capita, consistent with downward wage composition of the local workforce, and strongly reduced government transfers.

The above is from the Fed's Abstract. The following is from the New York Post's synthesis of the Fed report.

The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024.

They stress these estimates apply to the average metro area studied and do not suggest immigration was the sole driver of rising housing costs nationwide.

Joe Bided was demonstrably clueless and senile. We still suffer the consequences - higher prices, especially for housing. 

Quarter Millennium Snark

Or Nevada.

Obvious CG, notice arm thru coffee table.

Images courtesy of Power Line's The Week in Pictures

and its Comments section.

Images courtesy of Sarah Hoyt's

Starting the Fireworks Early.

Happy 250th Birthday

It has arrived, the day we've chosen to celebrate our beloved nation's birthday has rolled around for the 250th time. Happy Birthday, United States of America. Hurrah, long may your banners wave!

The first quarter millennium has been eventful, in the extreme. A bit less excitement in the next similar interval would be a restful change. That said, it may be too much to ask for a hegemon.

The other DrC and I have been to many countries and seen more than a few very nice ones. New Zealand and Switzerland come immediately to mind. 

Still, I'll repeat what I wrote recently. Our retirement checks would follow us anywhere on the planet, but this nation is where we feel at home. It is to the USA we owe whatever modest success we've achieved in this life, and we're grateful and appreciative.

Echoing the Sentiment

In honor of tomorrow's 250th birthday of the USA, I'm posting this 1984 photo of Tony Siraci, the grandson of Italian immigrants, kissing the forehead of Lady Liberty in New York City's harbor. My source, the NY Post.

I second that emotion. Hat tip to Smokey Robinson for the word-play.

Explaining Today's U.K.

Posted to Instapundit by Stephen Green, originally by Alice Smith, a quote too good not to share with you. Smith writes:

The UK is what happens when career public sector middle-managers get into power.

They have perfected "don't rock the boat, uber alles" to a high art. 

Who Are the DSA?

The fantastically named Batya Ungar-Sargon makes the following claims on X. If true, they give a clear picture of the Democratic Socialists of America movement - what it is and isn't.

80% of DSA members have a college degree.
60% work professional jobs.
Just 4% are blue-collar.
85% are white.

This isn't a working-class movement but an elite one, for whom "Free Palestine" and "Abolish ICE" operate as a smokescreen for class privilege—just like climate and trans activism and identity politics once did.

Hat tip to Instapundit for the link and his implied endorsement.

Yummy

CNBC reports demand for beef remains high, in the face of much higher prices. Especially the demand for premium cuts like ribeye steaks. 

This is good news for those of us who live where beef is raised, and good news for beef eaters more generally. The DrsC's favorite meal this summer is ribeye off the gas grill, and an ear of sweet corn hot out of the microwave, both fine eating and a snap to prepare.

Friday Meme Fest

⬆Explains Thune's reluctance, IYKYK.

Images courtesy of Politico's

The Nation's Cartoonists on the Week in Politics.

Images courtesy of RealClearPolitics'

Cartoons of the Week.