Tuesday, November 22, 2011

More on the Obama Base

Two additional thoughts about the Obama base follow. According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, some 10% of Americans have no religious faith. According to the Gallup polling organization, two thirds of the non-religious are either Democrats or independents, only a third are Republicans. So, another roughly 5-6% of Americans with no religion will vote Democrat.

A caveat is noted: a linear adding up of the electorate percentages represented by various groups as indicated in the previous blog entry is misleading. The groups can and do overlap to some degree. Examples: Some LGBT people are also government employees. Some women for whom abortion rights are a main election criterion are also Jewish. It is conceivable that one individual might belong to several of these groups.

Other groups hardly overlap at all. Committed unionists from the private sector cannot be government employees. Almost no Hispanics are also Jewish.

Bottom line, roughly 40% of Americans support the president in poll after poll. Given Obama's weak performance, their support is less approval for him than fear of the GOP, its adherents and their values. To some degree those fears are rational.