Tuesday, November 22, 2011

The Obama Base

People are writing about Barack Obama's rock-solid base of 40+ percent, and trying to figure out how that can be true. I think I have some notions of the components of that base.

First, African-Americans who make up roughly 13% of the U.S. population; I expect Obama to get nearly all of those votes. Hispanics make up about 15% of the population, and Obama will get two-thirds of those votes, that takes us up to about 23% of the U.S. voting public.

Add to that the approximately 4% who are LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender), now we're at 27%. Another 5-6% are government employees, nearly all of whom vote Democrat. Our new total is about 33%.

Nearly 2% of the electorate is Jewish, a group which mostly votes with Democrats. Two other groups which will add to the Obama base are women for whom abortion rights are of overriding importance, and committed unionists from the private sector.

I'd say we've identified all of the 40+% of the electorate upon which Barry O. can count. The groups identified above are, for a variety of reasons, very reliable Democrat voters.