Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Year-End Euro Exit?

Michael Pettis, writing for the Business Spectator, predicts that the Greek government will freeze bank deposits and pull out of the Euro sometime in the Christmas-New Years period. He bases this on the fact that Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001 did the deed at year's end.

Inasmuch as the yearend period is only five or six weeks away, we won't have to wait long to see if his prediction is correct. I'll bet Greeks are already pulling hard money (i.e., euros) out of their banks, I know I would. As Pettis points out, rational behavior on the part of individuals is exactly what is irrational for the society as a whole.