Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Liars Figure

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports unemployment data every week. Then, as better numbers become available, they adjust the numbers originally reported to make them more accurate. Nothing new here, they've been doing it for years.

What is new is what is reported in this Fox News article.
For 59 out of the last 60 weeks, the weekly jobless numbers have been revised, after the fact, always in the same direction: higher. That's unheard of.
Those revisions higher make the present week’s unemployment number look better in comparison, more so since the markets often treat the prior week’s revision as an afterthought.
As an afterthought, exactly. What is reported is what is released, what is "new." In the media not much is made of the prior week's revisions.

If the adjustments truly reflected the arrival of "better numbers" they'd be somewhat random. Roughly as many corrections downward as upward would occur. There is nothing random about 59 out of 60 weeks "better numbers" always being higher. My mental image is of a butcher with his fat thumb on the scales, always charging you for more meat than you actually bought.

Unemployment data being too low 59 out of 60 weeks is the same; it's evidence of bureaucrats fiddling the data to make unemployment look lower (i.e., "better") than it really is, week after week. Then, to cover their backsides, they are adjusting the final numbers to be closer to reality before moving on.

If the numbers Fox is reporting are accurate - I've not checked them myself - Congress should definitely investigate what is almost certainly scandalous lying to the public. Fiddling the numbers goes beyond spin, it would be malfeasance.