Israel is either about to attack Iran or it is running the biggest and most obvious bluff in the history of geopolitics. The question is which?
Or is it what poker-playing friends of mine would call "a double-reverse psych-out?" That is, make the war talk so obvious that Iran concludes it's a bluff and is thus caught napping when the planned attack occurs.
Perhaps it is just supposed to look like a double-reverse. As this Reuters article on Yahoo News suggests, merely a way of getting the West to lean harder on Iran in order to prevent Israel from starting a war it has no intention of starting.
Churchill said during the Soviet era, "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." That's the posture Israel is trying with some success to emulate.
One thing is certain: if Israel attacks, nobody can claim it was a Pearl Harbor-like surprise. They've been making belligerent noises vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear program for a couple of years.
