Friday, June 8, 2018

Dem Motivation Overrated

If you read pundit opinion, as I do, you've seen nearly everyone raving about how motivated Democrats are this year to go vote against Trump and all who stand with him. This view has attained coveted CW status.

All of which makes the results of a recent Rasmussen Reports poll so very interesting, as they contradict the CW.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 70% of Likely Republican Voters say they are more likely to vote this year than they have been in past election years. That compares to 64% of Democrats and 51% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.
In other words, 2018 looks more like the typical year as normally Republicans turn out at higher percentages than either Democrats or Independents. This has been true as far back as the Eisenhower-Stevenson 1952 match when I remember my father, a lifelong Southern Democrat, grumbling "those darned Republicans all vote."

Of course they do, many are people with something to lose (to the tax man), people who have figured out how to succeed in this society. Why wouldn't they try to defend at the ballot box what they've gained? Others are Trump enthusiasts who like what he's done and want another two years of it.

Reading Rasmussen's findings, I picture the fabled "blue wave's" final ripple sinking into the sand well short of a House majority.