Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Trump-Kim in Singapore: An Evaluation

I've read several analyses of the Trump-Kim talks in Singapore, some positive, some negative. The best of these, in my estimation, is by Paul Mirengoff of Power Line. He writes:
What did Trump get for the United States? The release of three American captives; the return of remains of missing Americans; the cessation, for now, of North Korean nuclear testing; and the destruction, complete or partial, of two (as I understand it) nuclear facilities. We should assume that the two facilities aren’t central to North Korea’s program.

What did Kim get from the United States? The cessation, for now, of war games. And the prestige associated with getting to meet the American president on equal terms.

Trump knows more than he did before about the man with the power to launch a nuclear strike. How rational is Kim (quite rational, I suspect)? To what extent does he share the traditional paranoia of his family (not much, I suspect)?

It’s also valuable to us that Kim now knows Trump better. Before he knew Trump at all, it was easy for Kim to fear he was dealing with a wild man — a warmonger. Thanks to the meeting, it’s likely that Kim no longer regards him that way.

Thus, the possibility of war due to miscalculation is probably reduced.
And Mirengoff concludes: "Trump did just fine." For this preliminary meeting, that's my conclusion as well.