History shows that three variables are crucial in countering an insurgency: a real process of reconciliation, no safe havens for the enemy and a competent host government. None are present in Afghanistan.
I buy Ignatius' first two variables, I'm less sure about the third. If a country has a "competent host government," can it have an insurgency with which it needs foreign help?
India for example has both a competent government and an insurgency. India, however, doesn't need foreign troops to deal with its Naxalite rebels. Colombia is another nation with a competent government which hasn't needed foreign troops to deal with its insurgency.
