As Stephen Moore writes in The Wall Street Journal, this rule did not hold true in the 2012 election. The five groups that provided Obama's base were the five groups whose economic well-being had taken the biggest beating during Obama's first term:
The stimulus-led economic revival that began officially in June 2009—Vice President Joe Biden's famous "summer of recovery"—has only resulted in lower incomes for at least half of Americans, the very ones who were instrumental in electing Mr. Obama twice.Moore doesn't speculate about why these people voted against their economic interests. I would hazard a guess that having someone other than a successful white male as President was sufficiently wonderful to these voters that Obama's failure to improve the economy didn't matter.
If that guess is accurate, a Hillary Clinton candidacy may have the same effect, may also meet the "get even" need of many voters. Meanwhile the rich get richer and the poor get rap sheets.
