We've all read that demographics will sound the death knell for Republicans, if not now, soon. In the respected FiveThirtyEight blog of demon number-cruncher Nate Silver, Harry Enten argues (apologies to George and Ira Gershwin) "It ain't necessarily so." He writes:
The electorate in 2014 was just as diverse as it was in 2008, even as the election results were so starkly different.Republicans can win black and Hispanic votes, particularly when Dems. screw up and look inept. Gaining a majority of either group isn't essential, a healthy minority of either or both may suffice.
- Whites made up 76.3 percent of voters each year;
- Black voters were 12 percent in 2014 vs. 12.3 percent in 2008;
- Hispanics were 7.4 percent in 2014 vs. 7.3 percent in 2008;
All of these changes are within 0.3 percentage points of the earlier figures, and yet Republicans won the national House vote by 5.6 percentage points in 2014 and lost the national presidential vote by 7.3 percentage points in 2008.
- And Asians were 2.8 percent in 2014 vs. 2.6 percent in 2008.
So what the heck happened? If the exit polls are to be believed (and they aren’t perfect), it was not that any one group became more Republican in 2014. Instead, they all did.
