The Near East's Near Future

Steven Metz writes at World Politics Review about the new order emerging in the Middle East. He sees a three-cornered struggle, with Iran at one corner, the Saudis at another, and ISIS at the third. See what Metz says about the future U.S. role in the region:

Despite all the talk we are likely to hear during the upcoming presidential campaign about reasserting American “leadership” in the region, the changes that have taken place are not simply a matter of presidential will, but a reflection of deep and permanent structural factors.

All of this suggests that whoever wins the 2016 presidential election in the United States will be frustrated enough to consider, and perhaps undertake, disengagement from the Middle East. As long as Israel remains secure—and there is little likelihood of a regional threat that the Israelis can’t handle with modest assistance—the U.S. role in the new Middle East will continue to recede.

This presupposes Iran will not go all nuclear suicide bomber on Israel. It's interesting Metz doesn't see the Turks as players, doesn't mention them at all. Perhaps he believes they'll keep busy with the "-stans," the former SSRs, mostly peopled by Turkic tribes.

My sense: many Americans would welcome a withdrawal from the Middle East, particularly if our current energy independence can be sustained.