Monday, February 1, 2016

Cruz Wins Iowa, Narrowly

Iowa has spoken: Cruz narrowly edged out Trump who narrowly edged out Rubio, their percentages 28%, 24% and 23% in round numbers. Honestly, they are close enough to toss a blanket over the three of them.

Between them they accounted for 75% of the caucus votes cast, and the caucus turnout was large, on the order of 180,000. While either Kasich or Christie might pull out a second place finish in Yankee New Hampshire, expect many pundits to declare the GOP now has a 3 candidate race. Also expect many candidate withdrawals - in current parlance "suspensions" - to follow.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side Hillary is very narrowly ahead of Bernie at this writing, they are separated by perhaps 1 percentage point or less. At roughly 9 p.m. Pacific Time Fox News is calling their race "too close to call."

Look for Sanders to call this a "moral victory" even if it is a technical loss to Clinton. If he gets a draw in Iowa and, as expected, wins New Hampshire Clinton will no longer appear the inevitable nominee.